The worst-case scenario is currently being considered. Some analysts say Bitcoin could fall as low as $41,000 if the bear flag pattern currently forming on price charts materializes – a warning sign that draws attention as the cryptocurrency is trading near $66,000, or about half of what it was worth at its recent high.

The geopolitical shock strikes at the wrong time

Close Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring this week, sending shockwaves through global markets and dragging down risky assets. Bitcoin was caught at a sale.

Prices fell below $66,000 as investors weighed rising energy costs, persistent U.S. inflation and modern bond market tensions. The timing of the geopolitical crisis has made an already frail price structure more hard to defend.

AND bear flag the pattern – a technical chart signal where prices briefly consolidate after a decline and then continue to decline – is now noticeable on the Bitcoin chart.

Reports from market analysts indicate that the initial downside target is near $50,000, with the $41,000 level emerging as a deeper lower level as selling pressure intensifies.

Bitcoin is down 47% from its peak. These kinds of declines may seem concerning, but analysts who track long-term cryptocurrency cycles say it fits a pattern that has emerged before.

A cycle that has happened before

Data shows that Bitcoin tends to lose momentum in the medium term. Reports from 2014, 2018 and 2022 show a repeating sequence: prices start the year relatively stable, decline at the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter, and then decline during the summer months. 2026 price action has closely tracked this historical average.

On average, about now is when #Bitcoin it continues to decline in the medium term. pic.twitter.com/JZ7Rcx2wJY

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 27, 2026

Analyst Benjamin Cowen, who has tracked Bitcoin’s multi-year cycles, points out what he calls mid-cycle immersion zone — a phase that usually follows a immense bull run and lasts for several quarters.

According to Cowen, midterms are not slump years. These are periods of cooling. Rallies are losing momentum. Volatility increases. Corrections last longer than most investors expect.

This description fits what is happening now. After a powerful run in 2025, Bitcoin’s annual performance has deteriorated negativecorresponding to the type of softening observed in previous cycles.

Patience may be the only strategy left

For long-term Bitcoin holders, the message from analysts is basic: it has happened before, and it always ends in the end.

However, the short-term picture is not hopeful. Macro pressures are mounting at the same time that Bitcoin’s chart structure is weakening, with no clear catalyst in sight to reverse the trend.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView