As Bitcoin enters a key week, market participants are closely monitoring several key indicators and events that could determine its near-term trajectory. Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ted (@tedtalkssmacro) provided an in-depth analysis analysishighlighting key factors in the game.

Weekly Bitcoin preview

Ted’s analysis begins by contextualizing the broader macroeconomic environment. Last week’s data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) were upbeat for risk assets, highlighting the continued disinflationary trend. “Both the CPI and PPI data were bullish for risky assets, and each showed that the disinflationary trend is continuing,” Ted noted. He warned, however, that the Federal Reserve’s announcement suggests that the market should not be too enthusiastic about imminent interest rate cuts.

The centerpiece of this week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its revised scatter chart. In March, the scatter chart showed a potential 2-3x rate cuts in 2024. However, the June revision of the scatter chart suggested a more conservative outlook, indicating only 1-2 cuts. Ted explained: “The March scatterplot suggested 2-3 cuts in 2024, but the June scatterplot suggests only 1-2 cuts should be expected.”

This consistency of Fed forecasts with market expectations will likely provide the central bank with greater flexibility in future interest rate announcements. It is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain the support level of $66,000.

Ted emphasized the importance of this threshold, stating: “It is very important that Bitcoin maintains its support at $66,000. If broken, sellers could gain a stronghold in the market and force the bulls to liquidate quickly.” This level of support is seen as a critical threshold, with potential implications for broader market sentiment.

The suggested weekly ranges for Bitcoin and Ethereum reflect cautious optimism among traders. Bitcoin is expected to trade between $65,100 and $74,100, while Ethereum is expected to trade between $3,388 and $4,025. Ted emphasized: “This week is crucial for maintaining the short-term trend of BTC (and, by extension, the broader cryptocurrency market).”

Ted also highlighted the performance of US technology stocks, particularly the NASDAQ, which recently hit up-to-date all-time highs. “U.S. technology stocks are certainly feeling the disinflationary atmosphere, with the NASDAQ hitting new all-time highs in anticipation of easier central bank policies to come,” he noted. This disconnect shows that something may be brewing for Bitcoin.

Ethereum’s performance compared to Bitcoin is another area of ​​concern. Ted suggested that Ethereum may start to “catch up to Bitcoin,” particularly with the anticipated launch of spot Ethereum ETFs on Wall Street. Ethereum’s potential to close the performance gap with Bitcoin is an essential active to monitor in the coming days.

Additionally, interest rate decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are on the radar. While no interest rate cuts are expected from these central banks, their decisions will be scrutinized for any signs of future changes in monetary policy. Ted mentioned: “Australian or Swiss central banks are not expected to cut interest rates this week, rather they will remain unchanged.”

ETF flows, which slowed last week due to market volatility ahead of key macro events, are also expected to play a key role. Ted noted: “The past week has seen a slowdown in ETF flows on Wall Street for Bitcoin. Likely due to nerves ahead of key macro events, this will be key to BTC returning to strength in the coming week.” Strong ETF flows are vital to maintaining liquidity and supporting Bitcoin’s price.

To summarize, this week will be crucial for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. The interplay of disinflationary trends, Federal Reserve announcements, key support levels and external economic factors will shape market direction. Ted concluded: “The data clearly point to a shift to more accommodative monetary policy – ​​and potentially sooner rather than later. This reinforces my view that declines represent an opportunity to buy risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.”

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $65,965.

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com