Technology-focused asset manager ARK Invest said it will begin using Kalshi’s predictive market data to improve how it makes investment decisions, one of the latest cases to show the broader value of predictive market data beyond trading.
According to A statement from Kalshi, ARK will exploit forecast market data to measure real-time expectations and drive existing market research, as well as analyze performance metrics such as trading volume, regulatory approvals and technology milestones. ARK will also exploit data for risk management and hedging strategies.
“Incorporating forecast markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood he said On Thursday, the company’s chief research officer Nick Grous said forecast markets “offer some of the purest expressions of risk associated with key economic and company-specific outcomes.”
Prediction markets became one of the hottest exploit cases for cryptocurrencies last year and consistently exceeded $10 billion in monthly trading volume. Forward-looking market data is also increasingly viewed by institutions including the Federal Reserve and Cornell University as valuable in making decisions that require a market pulse.
In the post on X Wood as well he said ARK partners with Kalshi to bring markets to the forecast markets platform on topics of interest, including macroeconomic data and major scientific developments.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour excellent that “several of these are already available in Kalshi, including non-farm payroll markets, deficit-to-GDP markets, enterprise KPIs, and more.”
Fed and Cornell see opportunity in forecasting markets
Last month, U.S. Federal Reserve researchers argued that Kalshi could better measure real-time macroeconomic expectations than existing solutions and should therefore be included in the Fed’s decision-making process.
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“Kalshi markets provide a continuously updated and distribution-rich, high-frequency reference point that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers,” Fed researchers said at the time.
Market data forecasts from Polymarket have also been included examined at Cornell University to study how investors reacted in real time to political events such as the Donald Trump-Joe Biden presidential debates and the 2024 Trump assassination.
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