Here’s what you need to know for Thursday, March 26:
Markets were impacted by a shift in geopolitical sentiment as reports of potential ceasefire talks initially eased tensions. But uncertainty quickly resurfaced as Iran signaled reluctance to cooperate with the United States, highlighting breakable diplomatic progress and keeping markets in suspense.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose just below 100 to near 99.50 as the dollar continued to be supported by interest rate differentials and safe-haven demand earlier in the week. In the face of deteriorating market sentiment, the US dollar remained unchanged.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.33% | 0.47% | 0.28% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | -0.04% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.04% | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.35% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.06% | -0.00% | |
| BOOR | -0.33% | -0.07% | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.02% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.47% | -0.22% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.02% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.11% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The EUR/USD rate fell to around 1.1570, slightly softer on the day as the stronger US dollar (USD) restricted the rise of the euro (EUR). The pair remained under pressure after Tuesday’s feeble PMI data for the euro zone, with concerns about economic growth continuing to weigh on the euro.
GBP/USD fell towards the 1.3370 zone, with the pound struggling to recover amid ongoing concerns about economic growth and inflation dynamics in the UK.
USD/JPY rose to the 159.30 area, supported by elevated US yields and the continued policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
AUD/USD fell to the 0.6960 range, a stronger dollar amid risks and global growth, which in turn restricted gains in the Australian stock market.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose modestly near $90.30 a barrel, rebounding from recent highs amid ceasefire hopes that eased concerns about direct supplies. However, prices remained elevated, reflecting continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold rose sharply towards the $4,550 region, benefiting from falling yields and easing concerns over oil-led inflation, while continuing to draw support from continued geopolitical uncertainty.
What’s next on the docket:
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK consumer confidence (April).
- Euro zone gross domestic product (Q4).
- Monthly report of the Bundesbank in Germany.
- Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States.
- New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidentiality (March).
Friday, March 27:
- UK consumer confidence in March.
- UK retail sales in February.
- Euro area March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations in Michigan in March.
Frequently asked questions about WTI crude oil
WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three main types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low weight and low sulfur content. It is considered a high-quality oil that can be easily refined. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Junction, considered the “Crossroads of the World.” It is a reference point for the crude oil market, and the WTI price is often quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are key factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. Therefore, global growth may drive increased demand and, conversely, feeble global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Another key factor shaping prices are the decisions of OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil because oil is mainly sold in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
Weekly crude oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence the price of WTI crude oil. Inventory changes reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate increased demand, which will result in an augment in the price of oil. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, which causes prices to fall. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the next day. Their results are usually similar and are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing countries that jointly decide on production quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Their decisions often influence the prices of WTI crude oil. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, which will push up oil prices. OPEC increasing production has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
