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What a market! Amid increasingly unpredictable and inconsistent policymaking in the US, as well as tender economic growth in the UK, investors have had a volatile few days. My initial instinct was to continue to look for bargain FTSE 100 shares to add to my portfolio.
But would it be better to just forget about the stock market, enjoy the upcoming summer away from it, and come back later next year when the geopolitical situation might have calmed down?
Timing the market can be hazardous
This could potentially save me from some value traps. After all, many FTSE 100 shares seem tantalizingly economical to me at the moment – but whether this will actually be the case remains to be seen in a few months.
But there is a risk here. Many people try to monitor the market over time. However, a number of academic studies have shown that staying out of the market for even a tiny period of time can significantly impact long-term returns.
This is because these returns are disproportionately influenced by a compact number of trading periods.
So the lack of a market for the coming months could potentially protect me from some value traps. On the other hand, it could mean that I miss out on some great investment opportunities.
I’m hunting for bargains!
To take JD Sports (LSE: JD) as an example.
One way to look at the FTSE 100 retail company’s share price – down 21% since the turn of the year – is as a warning sign.
Tangled global supply chains could enhance costs for an international sportswear retailer. On the demand side, consumers are becoming more constrained, which may mean they are less willing to spend money on up-to-date sneakers or training equipment.
If this view turns out to be correct, the best move would be to cut your losses and dump JD Sports stock.
However, there is an alternative way of looking at the matter: JD Sports looks like a potential opportunity for the long-term investor and is therefore worth considering now.
Actually, that’s how I see it.
Why? JD Sports has a huge global network of branches as well as a enormous digital presence. It has spent years investing heavily in making its brand desirable to its target customers. It also has deep relationships with suppliers, especially Nike.
Right now, these strengths don’t seem to be helping the company much on the stock market. In some ways, this isn’t surprising: Nike itself is down 15% since the turn of the year.
However, I hope that over time, JD Sports’ strengths will begin to emerge. It may take years, but long-term investing requires patience.
Honestly, I’m very tempted to buy more JD Sports stock at what I think is a bargain price. But this is my biggest position. To maintain sufficient portfolio diversification, I will not enhance my current holdings.
Fortunately, I see many other potential opportunities in the FTSE 100 – and who knows whether they will be as economical next week, let alone after the summer?
