Ethereum is trying to regain the $2,200 level as market participants respond to US President Donald Trump’s recent moves in the Middle East, which have caused renewed volatility in global risky assets. The reaction reflects broader sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty, with cryptocurrency markets showing mixed signals as investors reassess risk exposure.

Despite recovery efforts, fundamental data suggests demand remains uneven. According to CryptoQuant Arab Chain analyst, the Coinbase Premium Index for Ethereum recorded a reading of around -0.0149, which is clearly negative. This means that ETH is listed on Binance at a higher price compared to Coinbase, indicating relatively weaker demand from US investors.

This discrepancy is significant. Coinbase is often used as an indicator of activity in the institutional and US markets, while Binance reflects broader participation around the world. The negative premium suggests that purchasing pressure is currently stronger outside the US, while domestic demand remains subdued.

In this context, Ethereum’s attempt to recover $2,200 faces structural obstacles. While global liquidity appears vigorous, the lack of powerful U.S. participation raises questions about the sustainability of the current move, especially in a market that continues to be impacted by macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Coinbase Premium signals feeble US support for Ethereum

The Arabic chain continues explains that a move of the Coinbase Premium Index into negative territory typically reflects either increasing selling pressure or a decline in buying appetite among U.S. investors. In contrast, liquidity on Binance appears to be more vigorous, suggesting global participants are currently driving price action while US demand lags.

Although Ethereum has attempted to rebound from recent declines, the index’s persistence at around -0.0149 indicates that the move lacks powerful support from Coinbase. In practice, the recovery is not confirmed by flows from the US, which are often associated with institutional activity and greater liquidity.

An index position below zero serves as a warning sign, especially as the divergence between Binance and Coinbase continues. Persistently negative readings reveal an unsustainable market structure in which selective participation drives gains rather than broad demand.

However, this signal is lively. If the index starts to recover towards zero or turns positive, it would mean the return of buying pressure in the US, restoring balance between platforms. Such a change would likely strengthen the upward momentum and provide stronger confirmation of a sustained recovery in the Ethereum market.

Ethereum faces resistance as recovery attempts stall below key averages

Ethereum is currently trading in the $2,150-$2,200 range as it tries to stabilize after a keen crash that occurred in early February. The chart shows a clear change in structure, with ETH losing its previous higher low pattern and entering a sustained downtrend characterized by lower highs and continued selling pressure.

The recent rebound from levels below $1,900 reflects near-term demand, but price action remains confined below key moving averages. ETH continues to trade below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are both trending down, signaling that momentum remains bearish over the medium term. More importantly, the 200-day moving average is significantly higher, reinforcing the broader trend weakness and acting as a distant resistance level.

Volume dynamics also support this view. The largest boost in activity occurred during the February sell-off, suggesting capitulation rather than accumulation. Since then, recovery efforts have been accompanied by relatively lower volumes, indicating a lack of powerful buyer confidence.

Structurally, Ethereum appears to be consolidating in a tight range after the decline. Unless ETH manages to reclaim the $2,300-$2,400 area and break above key moving averages, the current price action is more consistent with a continuation of the bear market or consolidation within the range rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com