Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), could surge by around 25% in the coming months as the richest group of whales becomes profitable for the first time since early February.

Key conclusions: :

• ETH gained 25% in three months and an average of 50% in six months after top whales returned to profits in previous cycles.

• Ether could rise above $2,750 by June if an on-chain whale metric signal emerges.

ETH whale metric signals are already bottoming out

According to the data resource, the unrealized profit rate of wallets holding over 100,000 ETH rose above zero CryptoQuant. In other words, this cohort of whales is no longer based on aggregate paper losses.

In the past, similar transitions to a “profitable state marked the starting point of an upward trend” he said CW network analyst.

ETH provided almost a 25% return on average three months after the whale ratio turned positive. Similarly, its price increased by approximately 50% after six months and 300% after a year after the signal appeared.

Price behavior suggests that as top ETH whales return to total profit, they will face less pressure to sell defensively. At the same time, this change could strengthen broader market confidence, signaling renewed confidence among ETH’s wealthiest holders.

ETH could head towards the $2,750 area by June and above $3,200 by September if the historic pattern continues after the signal.

Related: Early Ethereum whale rebuilds stack by purchasing $19.5 million of ETH

Still, the whale ratio index is not flawless. For example, in 2018, after a similar reversal, ETH dropped 17.5% in a month and ultimately fell by almost 70%.

Onchain data limits Ether’s gain to $2,640

Another on-chain signal strengthens the case for Ethereum recovery.

Glassnode data can be seen ETH is bouncing off the bottom of the MVRV deviation band (blue), a setup similar to Q2 2022 and Q2 2025 when the price rebounded from undervalued levels and rose above the realized price again.

At current rates, ETH remains below the realized price (purple) at $2,353, which remains the first key recovery level. A break above this threshold could open the door towards the -0.5 sigma (turquoise) band near $2,640.

On the other hand, failure to recover the realized price could expose ETH to a retest of the lowest deviation band near $1,651.

Ethereum technical data confirms a rise above $2,600

From a technical perspective, ETH has broken its ascending triangle pattern and is currently retreating towards the previous resistance trendline.

Such retests are common after breakouts because markets often return to the breakout level to confirm that it has moved to up-to-date support.

Ether could resume a rebound towards the triangle-measured upside target of around $2,625 or more if the upper trendline holds as support.

This level is also within a broader on-chain recovery range defined by Glassnode’s MVRV bands, which adds convergence to the bullish setup.

On the other hand, a failed retest would weaken the breakout structure and risk sending ETH back toward the lower support zone near $1,950-$2,000.