The quantum risk for Bitcoin investors is real, but not all wallets are vulnerable, and those best equipped to deal with it are working on it, says Galaxy Digital research analyst Will Owens.
Owens said in Thursday’s report that theoretically a quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys, allowing an attacker to impersonate the owner, forge a signature and steal coins.
However, he argued that not all portfolios are equally susceptible to this risk.
“In fact, most wallets are not currently vulnerable to attacks. Funds are only at risk if public keys are exposed on-chain,” he said.
Owens said they have created two main ways to expose wallets: those whose public keys are already perceptible, and wallets whose public keys are exposed when money is spent.
The threat that quantum computing poses to cryptocurrencies has long been debated within the community as a coming tipping point. It is theorized that advanced computers capable of breaking encryption could expose user keys, expose sensitive data and steal user funds.
Developers are actively addressing quantum threats
Critics say the threat posed by quantum computers is overblown because the technology is still decades away from profitability and banking giants and other classic targets will cracked long before Bitcoin.
Owens said there is also online discourse that Bitcoin Core developers are “ignoring and protecting” quantum-related proposals like the BIP 360 gentle fork, but he claims to have found something different, noting that “the pace of proposals has increased significantly since late 2025.”
“Despite some public criticism, our review showed that developers have put a lot of work into addressing quantum vulnerabilities and how to mitigate them,” he said.
“The ecosystem now has a concrete and mature set of proposals that cover the entire surface of the problem. These proposals are not theoretical. They are actively developed, reviewed and discussed by some of the most experienced authors in the Bitcoin ecosystem.”
Solutions were also proposed by other industry participants. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said last November that keeping Bitcoin (BTC) in a SegWit wallet for several years could support mitigate quantum risks.
Related: Bitcoin may fall below 50 thousand. dollars if the quantum issue is not resolved by 2028: Capriole
Management will likely continue to be a challenge
Owens said that when the developer community actually develops a post-quantum solution, it will likely be a challenge because “Bitcoin has no CEO, board of directors, or central authority that can mandate software updates.”
“But the nature of this particular threat – external, technical and universal in its impact – realigns incentives in a way that previous disputes over Bitcoin’s economic direction did not,” he said. “Every honest network participant, from miners to holders to exchanges, has a direct financial interest in the continued security of the network.”
“For investors, the lesson is simple: the risk is real, but it is recognized, and the people who are best able to deal with it are working on it.”
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