According to market technician Aksel Kibar, whose latest charts point to a possible move towards $52,500, bitcoin could be vulnerable to another acute decline should the developing wedge formation break down. This warning is significant because Kibar is not taking this as a sizzling macro opinion or sentiment call, but as a purely technical risk signal built around the same structure he warned about the earlier Bitcoin selloff.

In one of his latest posts at It doesn’t say that Bitcoin has to trade there. He says a confirmed structure loss (currently around $66,000) would open up this path on the chart.

History repeating itself for Bitcoin?

Kibar connected this to a broader point about trade management rather than directional belief. “If you entered with a map signal, you should exit with a map signal,” he wrote. He further added: “How can charts be used as a risk management tool? By stepping aside when the time is not right, it protects capital, frees it for other opportunities.” Read together, the message is not so much calling for a dramatic fall as for respecting invalidation in the event of a technical installation failure.

The background is a call Kibar made on January 19, when Bitcoin was consolidating below what he treats as his long-term trend filter, the 365-day EMA. At the time, with prices in a rising wedge and being rejected near the upper limit of around $97,000, he wrote:

“Consolidating below the long-term average. For cryptocurrencies, I take the 365-day EMA. For stocks, I take the 200-day EMA as my yearly average trend filter. So far, BTCUSD has respected the yearly average. This is part of the cut and search for a base. The pattern may become a rising wedge, usually bearish, trying to test the 73.7-76.5k support area.”

This support zone eventually came under pressure, and the chart he republished shows a deeper bounce towards the $60,000 area before the recent rebound began to reflect what he believes is a similar wedge.

Notably, Kibar is one of the most respected technical analysts at The CMT Association also lists him as a presenter and contributor.

For Bitcoin traders, the immediate consequences are straightforward. When Kibar speaks, the market usually pays attention to him. As long as the price stays inside the wedge or breaks out, bulls have nothing to worry about. However, a break below $66,000 could open the door to another payout towards $52,000.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $70,259.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com