Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate has fallen below gold’s rate for the second time in its history, marking a remarkable moment for an asset long defined by its enormous long-term returns, according to Fidelity Digital Assets. For markets, the signal is not just about relative performance against gold, but what a slower growth profile might say about Bitcoin’s current market cycle.
In the novel Chart Chatter segment sent on X Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has trended downward over time as the asset price increases. He argued that this vigorous has resulted in a uncommon crossover today. “Now, in early 2026, we are seeing Bitcoin’s CAGR decline below gold’s 5-year CAGR for the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We have now seen three months in a row where the year started CAGR below gold.”
What does this mean for Bitcoin
This is a key statistic that Fidelity relies on. Bitcoin has outperformed gold on a five-year basis for most of its history, which in itself made the January break noticeable. The fact that it has held for three consecutive months gives this move more weight, especially in what Fidelity clearly describes as a bear market.
Wainwright tied the last comparable episode to the end of the previous cycle. “In 2022, one such month was in December 2022 when the price of Bitcoin reached a bear market low around $15,000,” he said. “We are now back in a bear market and below CAGR for an extended period, this time for three months.”
According to Fidelity, dips below the price of gold are uncommon, but have happened before during times of acute market weakness. The difference this time is the duration. One month in delayed 2022 can be dismissed as a compact disruption near the cycle low. Three straight months in early 2026 suggest a more sustained compression in Bitcoin’s long-term return profile.
At the same time, Fidelity did not see this crossover as evidence that Bitcoin had completely lost its decisive advantage. Wainwright carefully emphasized historical balance. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above gold’s CAGR for most of its history,” he said. “So this is a really unique case and phenomenon in Bitcoin where it is currently trading below the CAGR of gold.”
The golden side of comparison is also vital. The spot gold price reached USD 2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, then increased to USD 2,999.96 on March 18, 2025 and reached USD 5,012.45 on March 17, 2026. This translates into an augment of approximately 67.1% over the last year and approximately 132.4% in two years – growth that helps explain why Bitcoin’s Five-Year CAGR has now fallen below the value of gold.
For now, the conclusion is straightforward: Bitcoin still has a better long-term record compared to gold for most of its history, but early 2026 saw a uncommon exception. Whether this proves to be another delayed bear market anomaly or an early sign of Bitcoin’s more mature, slower growth is the question Fidelity has now posed directly to the market.
At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $74,015.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
