The price of silver (XAG/USD) extended losses for a third straight day on Friday, falling more than 2.90% as oil prices rebounded, even as US President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian oil for 30 days and the US dollar is near four-month highs. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $80.16, meaning the week will end with almost 3% losses.
Rising yields, stable oil prices have an impact on XAG/USD despite growing Fed bets on cuts
Market sentiment, while positive, remains volatile, with U.S. stocks reporting gains ranging from 0.40% to 0.43%. US economic data showed economic growth suffered a keen decline following the 43-day government shutdown, while inflation remains unchanged and shows no signs of weakening, the core PCE index revealed.
The second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2025 fell from 1.4% y/y in the preliminary reading to 0.7%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation rate remained stable at 3.1% y/y in January, while the headline figure fell slightly from 2.9% to 2.8% y/y.
After the GDP release, investors increased their predictions for Fed rate cuts in 2026. They were trading at 17 basis points at the start of the session, but at the time of writing they are expecting interest rate cuts of at least 19.5 basis points, according to Prime Market Terminal.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to augment global inflation after West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hit a yearly high near $113.00 per barrel earlier this week, but is trading at $95.90 at the time of writing. That has sent pump prices up more than 20% to $3.60 a gallon since the conflict began two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six currencies, rose 0.61% to 100.35.
U.S. Treasury yields are also rising, with the 10-year T bond rising 2.5 basis points to 4.287%, providing headwinds for the unyielding metal.
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will take decisive action against Iran in the coming week after a partial 30-day waiver on purchases of sanctioned Russian oil.
Investors will be focused on geopolitical developments throughout the weekend and will then turn their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting on March 17-18. In addition, they will look at industrial production, housing data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and employment data.
XAG/USD Technical Outlook: Short-Term, Silver Is in a Bearish Trend as Sellers Target a Break below $80
The daily chart of XAG/USD shows that the short-term bias is slightly bearish as the price falls below a group of medium-term straightforward moving averages around $86-$87, while the rest are capped by the falling $96.62 resistance line, which is currently sitting near the mid-80s. The rejection sequence from the $93.80 area and subsequent lower highs to trendline resistance highlight the fading of the upside momentum, with the RSI falling towards 45, which confirms increasing downward pressure rather than oversold conditions.
Initial resistance appears around $83.00, where the recent swing highs are below the downtrend line, before becoming stronger near $86.00, which coincides with the grouped moving averages. To ease the bearish tone and reopen the $90.00 region, a daily close above $86.00 would be necessary. On the other hand, immediate support is located near $78.00, protecting the more significant $74.00 area where prior lows coincide with a broader uptrend line structure from lower levels. A break below $74.00 would expose another bearish target near $70.00 and confirm a deeper correction within a longer-term uptrend.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the support of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal that is very popular among investors. Historically, it has been used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, investors may turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver in coins or bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can fluctuate due to many factors. Geopolitical instability or fear of a deep recession may push silver prices higher due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to appreciate at lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on the behavior of the US dollar (USD) when the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A powerful dollar tends to keep the price of silver at bay, while a weaker dollar will likely push prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – there is much more silver than gold – and recycling rates can also influence prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics and solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivities of all metals – greater than copper and gold. An augment in demand can augment prices, while a decrease usually lowers them. The dynamics of the economies of the United States, China and India can also contribute to price fluctuations: in the case of the United States and especially China, huge industrial sectors employ silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for precious metals for jewelry production also plays a key role in pricing.
Silver prices usually follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver tends to follow suit because their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The gold-to-silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can support determine the relative valuation of the two metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio may suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.
