A cryptocurrency market analyst described what he describes as a plain mathematical method that helped identify the bottom Previous Bitcoin bear market. Focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the bottom in 2022 is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macrophase.

Simple math that identified the bottom of the Bitcoin price bear market

In a post X shared on March 8, cryptocurrency analyst Chetan Gurjar again the forecast he presented in December 2022 regarding: Bitcoin bear market low. Although he admitted that the date of the conversation was slightly postponed by a few months, he said that the target price itself turned out to be correct.

Analysis referred to Bear in the Bitcoin market around the $15,000 region in slow 2022, which the analyst previously predicted based on this framework. His approach is macro-focused Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, with particular emphasis on the Fibonacci level at 1.618, located near $62,084.

The chart attached to the explanation shows how Bitcoin has historically responded to this macro level. During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break out and sustain price actionabove the Fibonacci level of 1.618. The analyst pointed to candles from the second and fourth quarters of 2021, which were rejected in the same zone.

These repeated denials it then signaled mighty resistance, reinforcing the importance of this level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, long-term Fibonacci math can be helpful, the analyst says identify both extreme minima and potential expansion goals.

The quarterly Fibonacci retest suggests the next macro phase

The analyst’s latest interpretation of the chart suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship is at 1.618 The Fibonacci level has moved from resistance to support. After breaking above the $62,084 area on a quarterly basis, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close to the level since the breakout.

The chart shows two significant retests after this move. Later in the second and third quarters, Bitcoin briefly tested this level, but managed to stay above it at the end. One quarterly wick even dropped below $50,000 before recovering to $62,084. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is trading above again the same Fibonacci macro level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior constitutes a quarterly retest of the bulls.

The projection drawn on the chart extends towards the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2.618, which is near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro target if the structure holds. The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting price declines could reach the $500,000 region in the expansion phase.

However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly declines remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with this caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a pattern of continuity focused on Bitcoin maintaining the Fibonacci level of 1.618.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com