Market analyst Ali Martinez highlights recent changes in Bitcoin’s 3-day chart that have significant bearish implications. The leading cryptocurrency continues to trade just below the $70,000 level following a transient breakout earlier this week. Bitcoin has now spent the immense majority of the last month in the $60,000 to $70,000 price range, after prices fell to recent market lows in behind schedule January and early February amid an extended bear season.
Bitcoin set for another leg?
In Post X On March 6, Martinez shares key macro insights on Bitcoin’s price trajectory using historical data from a 3-day trading chart. An experienced analyst explains that the formation of a specific death cross consistently precedes the final price decline in a market cycle. Generally speaking, a death cross represents a bearish technical indicator in which the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, indicating that recent price momentum has weakened relative to the longer-term trend and that selling pressure is increasing in conjunction with a potentially prolonged downturn.
A common version of a death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, and according to observations shared by Martinez, this is a key bearish indicator in the Bitcoin market. In 2013, Bitcoin crashed 72% before a 50/200 SMA death cross appeared. The market leader then saw its price drop an additional 52% before bottoming out.
Bitcoin $BTC The 3-day chart is one of the most vital time frames from a macro perspective.
What is most vital to me on this time frame is the interaction between the 50 and 200 uncomplicated moving averages.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 6, 2026
A similar pattern can be seen in 2017, when Bitcoin fell 67% from its pre-death cross market peak, causing an additional 50% crash. In the last market cycle, the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared in May 2022, when the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly by 58% from the cycle peak. BTC investors would then experience another 46% devaluation.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently down 45.62% from its current cycle high of $126,100 following an extended decline that has been ongoing since October. It is worth noting that the price movement also caused another death cross on the 3-day chart, indicating that based on precedents, there could be a potential major decline. In this case, Bitcoin could drop an additional 49% on average, setting a potential low around $33,500. Martinez warns, however, that this price pattern does not guarantee a bear market, only a historical fit to the macro pattern.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,235 after falling 4.21% in the last 24 hours. Following the recent positive price action, the virgin cryptocurrency is up 3.59% on its weekly chart. However, Bitcoin remains far from a bullish return, as indicated by its current loss of 4.49% on the monthly chart.
