Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $70,000 leads to questions whether it’s the start of a modern impulsive leg higher or just another stop longer descent process.

CrypFlow cryptocurrency analyst, posting on X, spread a a technical rationale for why Bitcoin may be in the early stages of forming a major cycle bottom and why October 2026 may be the starting point for the next full-scale bull run. The analysis is based on multi-year trend lines, cyclical behavior and the Stochastic RSI indicator.

Bitcoin respects the trend line that has been in place since 2018

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action over a monthly time horizon shows that the leading cryptocurrency’s price action continues to follow a multi-year trendline that has quietly formed Bitcoin’s biggest cyclical lows. This ascending trendline connects the 2018 cycle bottom to the 2022 bottom and currently appears to be acting as support again in 2026. Bitcoin’s current position is currently directly above this structure.

CrypFlow also pointed to a major horizontal zone that previously acted as resistance around the cycle top in 2021. This aged ceiling around $69,000 is now being tested as support in the current price action. This type of role reversal is very crucial for Bitcoin’s price action because it shows that the cryptocurrency may be trying to build a base at the intersection of an aged resistance band and a rising trend line.

If Bitcoin can do it stay over the current zone close to $69,000 without falling to the $50,000 region, this would mirror the structure seen at the 2022 bottom. This low was formed on a similar confluence where a rising trend line met resistance from the previous cycle from the 2017 high.

Calendar of the modern running of the bulls

Price levels get all the attention. There is almost no time, and according to CrypFlow, this is where most people misunderstand the cycle. The analyst pointed to the stochastic RSI to track how long the indicator stayed below the zero line during each major bear market cycle, and the historical pattern is striking in its consistency.

During the 2018/2019 cycle, the Stochastic RSI spent approximately 365 days below zero before Bitcoin achieved its true reversal and another bull market began. The same was true for the 2022/2023 bear market cycle, with Bitcoin spending roughly one full year below zero before a sustained recovery began. However, Bitcoin’s stochastic RSI is in this cycle it was only below zero for approximately 120 days.

Putting all this together, the scenario opens up where Bitcoin creates a double bottom later this year, likely around October 2026, before the next huge bull run begins. This does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will soon suffer further collapse. According to CrypFlow, this suggests that price action has not completed the snail-paced, grueling work on which true cycle bottoms are built.

Featured image from pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com