The short-term XRP setup is facing renewed pressure after a surge in exchange inflows into Binance, with on-chain data showing that the move was mostly followed by enormous holders. The spike is significant because it indicates a sudden enhance in potential supply on the sell side at a time when broader market momentum remains faint.

Co-creator of CryptoQuant, Darkfost tiled the move was published today in a post on X, tying the development to a softer backdrop for altcoins while Bitcoin remains circumscribed. “BTC continues to fluctuate, offering limited directional clarity in the short term. This lack of momentum is reflected in the broader market, with altcoins continuing to underperform in the absence of a clear trend,” Darkfost wrote.

Are XRP Whales Selling?

This context is crucial for XRP. In a market with circumscribed continuation, enormous exchange deposits may carry more weight than in the high risk phase, especially when flows are concentrated in whale-sized cohorts.

The chart shared by Darkfost, titled “XRP Ledger: Exchange Inflow – Value Bands – Binance”, shows a clear difference on February 21. Total inflows jump to over 31 million XRP, well above the remaining days in the February 15-23 window, with cumulative bars dominated by the 100k-1 million XRP and >1 million XRP cohorts.

Darkfost directly summarized the move: “This week was particularly marked by a significant inflow of XRP to Binance, which, due to its high liquidity, remains the exchange of choice for large transactions. Yesterday, over 31 million XRP was transferred to the exchange in one day.”

The chart also suggests that this was not a widespread retail event. Smaller cohorts contributed relatively little to the growth, while enormous holders accounted for almost all of the movement. This pattern is consistent with Darkfost’s core argument that this event increases short-term risk because it represents concentrated, potentially market-changing supply arriving in a highly liquid place.

According to the breakdown shared in the post, inflows were led by the two largest cohorts: 14,236,825 XRP from wallets in the 100k range. – 1 million and 14,494,865 XRP from the wallets of whales holding over 1 million XRP. Medium-sized portfolios in the range of PLN 10,000–100,000. added 2,938,809 XRP, while segments below 10,000 contributed only a miniature fraction of the total.

Taken together, the distribution confirms that the event was led by the whales and not dispersed. In practice, this matters because inflows from enormous holder exchanges are often viewed as a proxy for potential selling intent, even if the inflow itself does not confirm execution.

Darkfost put the risk in dollar terms, writing: “In total, this represents a sudden potential selling pressure of almost $45 million that requires close monitoring. If this selling pressure continues, XRP may have difficulty recovering from the ongoing correction in the near future.”

The price line overlaid on the chart shows that XRP has been trading in decline for most of the same period, moving from the high end of the displayed range around February 15-16, then bottoming out near February 19 before rebounding only slightly. By the time Binance saw a enormous inflow of cryptocurrencies on February 21, the price had risen slightly but remained below the previous week’s levels. However, the rebound was completely erased during the early morning European session as XRP fell to as low as $1.33.

At press time, XRP was trading at $1.3947.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com