Pain on the XRP chain has attracted recent attention this week. Realized losses rose to nearly $2 billion within a week. This type of move catches the eye of traders because it often signals a cleanup of weaker holders.
Santiment shows hefty realized losses
According to Santiment spike is the highest since 2022. Realized losses happen when people sell for less than they paid. This is a measure of surrender. In previous cycles, similar spikes occurred near major lows followed by mighty rallies.
📉 BREAKTHROUGH: XRP saw the largest raise in on-chain realized losses since 2022. When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93 billion realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP over the next 8 months it increased by +114%.
💸 Significant realized losses occur when a immense number of… pic.twitter.com/gPUU8fYfiY
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 21, 2026
One historic episode that investors point to saw a week of large losses followed by a 114% gain in about eight months. Nevertheless, this result was due to specific market conditions that are not guaranteed to recur.
When many petite owners will leave
The recent surge in realized losses has attracted the attention of market participants. When investors sell at a loss, this ratio increases, reflecting the extent to which coins exchange hands below their purchase price. Analysts often monitor this data to gauge changes in supply and demand.
Realized profit and loss data is commonly used to track market behavior during periods of edged price movements. While the data highlights the level of locked-in losses, price direction typically depends on broader trading activity, liquidity conditions and overall market trends.
Price changes and market tone
XRP at the time of these reports, the rate was around $1.45, up around 1.50% in 24 hours but down around 24% in a month. The token has moved mostly in line with Bitcoin during the broader market rebound.
Such short-term strength may be a start. It may also be a brief respite as part of a longer correction. Traders watching the charts want to see more volume and clearer levels before triggering a trend change.
My #XRP price targets for the next three months:
March $13
April $27
May $70— CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020) February 21, 2026
Why some forecasts stretch reality
Analyst goals Two- and three-digit numbers were circulating on the Internet. CryptoBull calls of $13, $27 and $70 in a matter of months are extreme and would require dramatic recent capital flows.
The market cap math shows that these moves require much more demand than casual optimism provides. Other analysts have used the lows from previous cycles to estimate a possible macro floor in the range of $0.75 to $0.85, using a multiple of approximately 2.8x.
Good signal
Taken together, the data has reignited the discussion about a uncommon on-chain signal that has historically occurred before a 114% surge.
Santiment’s latest data shows that realized losses have reached levels not seen since 2022, putting cyclical investors back into focus on this metric.
Whether history repeats itself will depend on upcoming demand, broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, and continued buying pressure in the coming weeks. For now, the signal has flashed again and the market is watching what will happen next.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
