GBP/USD Price Forecast: Testing a breakout of the symmetrical triangle near 1.3580

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During Wednesday’s European trading session, the GBP/USD pair remains steady at around 1.3570. The pair is losing ground while the pound sterling (GBP) is rising following the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.

Today’s price of sterling

The table below shows the current percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against the major listed currencies. The British pound was strongest against the New Zealand dollar.

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USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.16% -0.04% 0.31% 0.12% 0.15% 0.73% 0.21%
EUR -0.16% -0.20% 0.13% -0.03% 0.00% 0.58% 0.05%
GBP 0.04% 0.20% 0.31% 0.16% 0.20% 0.78% 0.23%
JPY -0.31% -0.13% -0.31% -0.17% -0.13% 0.44% -0.10%
BOOR -0.12% 0.03% -0.16% 0.17% 0.04% 0.61% 0.07%
AUD -0.15% -0.00% -0.20% 0.13% -0.04% 0.58% 0.03%
NZD -0.73% -0.58% -0.78% -0.44% -0.61% -0.58% -0.55%
CHF -0.21% -0.05% -0.23% 0.10% -0.07% -0.03% 0.55%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

However, the outlook for the British currency became uncertain as data showed that inflation pressures had eased at the expected rate. UK headline inflation fell to 3% year-on-year (y/y) from 3.4% in December. Over the same period, core CPI growth slowed to 3.1%.

Soft UK CPI data is expected to reinforce market speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting.

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is rising ahead of the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its January policy meeting at 19:00 GMT.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, is 0.2% higher at near 97.30.

GBP/USD technical analysis

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD rate remains almost constant at around 1.3570. The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) is trending lower at 1.3591, maintaining short-term bias pressure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44 is below the midline of 50, indicating feeble momentum despite the initial rally.

Overall, the outlook for this pair appears bearish as the pair is struggling to get back above the lower boundary of the Symmetric Triangle after the breakdown. Looking down, Cable could extend its decline toward the Jan. 22 low near 1.3400 if it breaks below Tuesday’s low at 1.3500.

(The technical analysis for this story was written with the aid of an AI tool.)

Economic indicator

Consumer price index (y/y)

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI). National Statistics on a monthly basis, it is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate of escalate or decrease in the prices of goods and services purchased by households – prepared in accordance with international standards. It is a measure of inflation used for government purposes. The y/y reading compares prices in the reference month with the previous year. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the pound sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.


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