When will CPI data be released in the UK and how may it affect GBP/USD?

UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January will be released at 07:00 GMT today.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to show headline inflation has eased to 3% year-on-year (y/y) from 3.4% in December. At a policy meeting earlier this month, the BoE said price pressures were expected to ease to “around 3% in the first quarter of 2026 and closer to 2% in the second quarter.”

Core CPI – which excludes the variable components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – is estimated to be growing at a moderate pace of 3.1%, compared with the previous reading of 3.2%. Headline inflation is expected to decline by 0.5% on a monthly basis after rising by 0.4% in December.

Investors will be closely monitoring UK inflation data for novel information on the outlook for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy. Meanwhile, the BoE’s dovish expectations accelerated after the release of British labor market data for the three months ended December on Tuesday, which showed a higher unemployment rate and moderate wage growth.

How might UK CPI data impact GBP/USD?

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD rate is slightly lower at around 1.3556. The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) trend declines to the 1.3593 level and continues to limit the rebound. The price remains below this indicator, maintaining a short-term bearish bias.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 39 (below 50) reflects frail momentum and favors sellers.

The overall price outlook is bearish as it includes a breakdown of the Symmetrical Triangle formation, also known as the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP). Generally, a VCP failure results in wider ticks and high volume on the negative side. Looking down, Cable could extend its decline towards the round 1.3400 level if it breaks below Tuesday’s low at 1.3500.

(The technical analysis for this story was written with the lend a hand of an AI tool.)

Economic indicator

Consumer price index (y/y)

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI). National Statistics on a monthly basis, it is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate of raise or decrease in the prices of goods and services purchased by households – prepared in accordance with international standards. It is a measure of inflation used for government purposes. The y/y reading compares prices in the reference month with the previous year. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the pound sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.