Forecasts for the coming week: US dollar struggles near 96.80 ahead of PCE, Fed speakers

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The US dollar (USD) lost significant ground during the week, briefly gaining strength after better-than-expected United States (US) employment data as January’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 130,000 jobs had been created. novel job positions. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.3% from 4.4%. On Friday, the United States released a weaker-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which weighed on the dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 96.80, down from highs of 97.15 after the release of tender CPI inflation data, which fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut later in the year. Next week, attention will turn to Friday, when December personal consumption spending, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, is released.

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Today’s US dollar price

The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Australian dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.01% -0.20% 0.05% -0.03% 0.11% -0.26% -0.18%
EUR 0.00% -0.19% 0.05% -0.03% 0.11% -0.22% -0.17%
GBP 0.20% 0.19% 0.23% 0.17% 0.30% -0.03% -0.00%
JPY -0.05% -0.05% -0.23% -0.06% 0.06% -0.28% -0.24%
BOOR 0.03% 0.03% -0.17% 0.06% 0.12% -0.22% -0.17%
AUD -0.11% -0.11% -0.30% -0.06% -0.12% -0.34% -0.30%
NZD 0.26% 0.22% 0.03% 0.28% 0.22% 0.34% 0.03%
CHF 0.18% 0.17% 0.00% 0.24% 0.17% 0.30% -0.03%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1880 price zone, recovering all intraday losses, as the euro zone’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) in Q4 was 1.4% compared to the expected 1.3% year-on-year. On Monday, the pair will oversee the Eurogroup Meeting launch and December’s industrial production. On Tuesday, there is the EcoFin meeting and the February ZEW survey for the euro zone and Germany.

AUD/USD nearing 0.7080, the stock is nearing three-year highs as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance continues to add fuel to the pair’s rally. Both will receive National Australia Bank Business Confidence and the Wage Price Index on Wednesday. Australian labor market data will be released on Thursday, along with the February flash S&P Global Composite PMI.

USD/CAD is trading near the 1.3600 price zone, recovering almost half of its weekly losses after the US inflation data. On Friday, the pair will be scouting for December retail sales in Canada.

USD/JPY is trading near 152.80 in the face of a mighty decline after the election victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which raised concerns about potential changes in the country’s fiscal policy. The National Consumer Price Index will be published on Thursday.

GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3650 price region, on the green side of the grass. January data on the Producer Price Index and the Retail Price Index will be published on Wednesday. UK retail sales figures will be released on Friday.

Gold is trading near the $5,038 price zone, recovering almost all of Thurdsay’s losses, but still struggling to return to the record high of $5,598 it hit in January as geopolitical tensions push investors into riskier positions.

Anticipating the economic outlook: voices on the horizon

Saturday, February 14:

Sunday, February 15:

Monday, February 16:

  • Bowman Fed.
  • Nagel of the ECB.

Tuesday, February 17:

  • Escriva from the ECB
  • Barr Fed.
  • Daly Fed.

Wednesday, February 18:

  • Cipollone from the ECB.
  • Schnabel ECB.
  • Bowman Fed.

Thursday, February 19:

  • Cipollone from the ECB.
  • De Guindos from the ECB.
  • Bostic Fed.
  • Bowman Fed.
  • Kaskari Fed.
  • Bremen RBNZ

Friday, February 20:

  • President of the ECB Lagarde.
  • Bostic Fed.

Central bank meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policy

Sunday, February 15:

Tuesday, February 17:

  • RBA meeting minutes.
  • Germany January Harmonized Price Index for Consumer Goods and Services.
  • January Change in the number of applicants in the UK.
  • December Employment changes in the UK.
  • December ILO unemployment rate in the UK.
  • Canadian January CPI.

Wednesday, February 18:

  • RBNZ decision on interest rates.
  • January CPI in Great Britain.
  • Minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee.

Thursday, February 19:

  • Australian January Employment Change.
  • Unemployment rate in Australia.

Friday, February 20:

  • UK retail sales in January.
  • Germany February preliminary HCOB Composite PMIs
  • Euro zone PMIs
  • UK preliminary results from February S&P Global PMI.
  • Basic personal consumption spending in December in the US.
  • February global PMI indices of the American agency S&P.
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