ABN AMRO Group Economics expects China’s January CPI to decline compared to the end of 2025 due to base effects and the Lunar New Year period. The consensus forecasts average CPI inflation to boost to 0.9% per year, while the annual decline in producer prices is expected to moderate due to rising commodity prices.

CPI and PPI indicate subtle reflation

“Consensus expectations, including ours, are that CPI inflation (Wednesday) will decline in January compared to the end of 2025, mainly driven by prior year base effects and the varying timing of the Lunar New Year break.”

“We expect average CPI inflation to rise to 0.9% this year (2025: 0.1%), although remaining low. Meanwhile, the annual decline in agricultural prices is expected to moderate further in January, partly due to rising commodity prices.”

(This article was created with the facilitate of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)