Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as faint U.S. employment data and concerns about investment in the artificial intelligence industry increased investor risk aversion.

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• Options markets show a 6% chance of Bitcoin returning to $90,000 by March.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $63,000 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. The 30% decline since failing to break $90,500 on January 28 has left traders skeptical of any immediate upside. The current bearish sentiment is fueled by faint U.S. labor market data and growing concerns about massive capital spending in the artificial intelligence sector.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin’s crash was caused by macroeconomic changes, options traders are currently pricing in just a 6% chance that BTC will regain $90,000 by March.

On the Deribit exchange, the right to buy Bitcoin for $90,000 on March 27 (call option) was quoted at $522 on Thursday. These prices suggest that investors see no chance for massive growth. According to the Black-Scholes model, these options reflect a less than 6% chance that Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by the end of March. For context, the right to sell Bitcoin for $50,000 (put option) on the same day was priced at $1,380, which means a 20% chance of a deeper crash.

Quantum computing risks and fears of forced liquidation are driving Bitcoin sales

Market participants have reduced exposure to cryptocurrencies due to emerging risks related to quantum computing and fears of forced liquidations of companies that have built Bitcoin reserves through debt and equity. In mid-January, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed the 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing the risk of quantum computers reverse engineering private keys.

Strategy (MSTR US), the largest publicly traded company with BTC onchain reserves, recently saw its enterprise value drop to $53.3 billion while having a cost basis of $54.2 billion. Japan’s Metaplanet (MPJPY US) faced a similar gap, valued at $2.95 billion compared to its acquisition cost of $3.78 billion. Investors fear that a prolonged bear market could force these companies to sell their positions to cover debt obligations.

External factors have likely contributed to increased risk aversion, and even silver, the second largest tradable asset by market capitalization, saw a 36% weekly price drop after hitting an all-time high of $121.70 on January 29.

Bitcoin’s 27% weekly decline closely mirrors losses seen in several billion-dollar publicly traded companies, including Thomson Reuters (TRI), PayPal (PYPL), Robinhood (HOOD), and Applovin (APP).

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. employers announced layoffs of 108,435 workers in January, an raise of 118% from the same period in 2025. The edged raise marked the highest number of January layoffs since 2009, as the economy was nearing the end of its deepest downturn in 80 years.

Related: Bitcoin’s Next Phase of Accumulation May Depend on Credit Load Momentum – Data

Market sentiment has already weakened after Google ( GOOG US ) said on Wednesday that capital spending in 2026 is expected to be $180 billion, down from $91.5 billion in 2025. Shares of tech giant Qualcomm ( QCOM US ) fell 8% after the company issued weaker growth forecasts, citing a shift in vendor capacity toward high-bandwidth memory for data centers.

Traders expect AI investments to take longer to pay off due to increasing competition and manufacturing bottlenecks, including energy constraints and memory chip shortages.

Bitcoin’s decline to $62,300 on Thursday reflects uncertainty over U.S. economic growth and jobs, making a near-term rebound toward $90,000 increasingly unlikely.