Following this, Bitcoin’s price action dropped into bearish territory falling below an critical previous low who has been supporting this rally for months. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,560 after falling to as low as $77,082 in the last 24 hours, which is a significant amount according to crypto analyst XForceGlobal change of technical structure.
According to his detailed Elliott Wave analysis shared on X, price action has now invalidated the bullish framework that many traders have been relying on, with lower levels becoming increasingly likely in the coming weeks and months.
Split Below Previous Low Primary Wave Number Changes
According to XForceGlobal, Bitcoin worked a intricate side structure, in particular the WXY combination, which was intended to be resolved by distribution rather than outright split.
The bulls managed to complete three of the five required elements of this triangular structure, but the failure to defend the previous low was the signal that led to a structural change. This prior low refers to the November 2025 Bitcoin low of $82,000 the bulls failed to defend this minimum when price action dropped below $80,000 in the last 24 hours.
When this level subsided, the number of primary waves could no longer be maintained. In terms of the Elliott wave number, this lower low means that price action starting from the historical high should now be treated as separate and corrective, rather than part of a well continuation. This restructuring gives the current decline more room to expand from a Fibonacci extension perspective and changes the minimum and maximum decline objectives should be assessed.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @XForceGlobal on X
The two bearish scenarios point to the same zone
The resulting analysis shows two main scenarios for further development of Bitcoin’s price action, with both converging at similar levels of declines. The first is a flat correction where Bitcoin is currently developing a C wave. Although XForceGlobal describes this option as the least attractive, it still is mean the full range of distribution this invalidates the bullish structure and lowers Bitcoin’s price to just $60,000.
The second scenario is a macro diagonal ending with the structure of a WXY move down. In this scenario, the October 2025 all-time high above $126,000 provides a cutoff point to improve wave separation of current price action. Interestingly, the price forecast from this scenario is also consistent with targets in the same $60,000 area. Despite different technical paths, both interpretations indicate a comparable risk of deterioration of the situation in the medium term.
Now that the larger structure has been breached, XForceGlobal says it makes sense to adopt a bearish bias over a shorter time horizon while reorganizing the number of subsequent waves. The prediction is that Bitcoin continues its decline to at least $60,000 before returning to the stage refund over $100,000.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
