Recently, the price of XRP has been crashed sale across the entire cryptocurrency marketfalling to an intraday low of $1.57 over the past 24 hours. The sudden decline highlights XRP’s higher time frame structure, which promises a break below the 33-month exponential moving average.
According to a technical assessment shared on X by cryptocurrency analyst Egraga Crypto, the recent drop below the 33-month exponential moving average does not automatically signal the end of the XRP cycle, but XRP needs to close above the exact level to avoid a macro bearish confirmation.
33 EMA break signal
At the time of writing, XRP has returned to around $1.65 and stabilized after several anxious hours this has forced many traders to re-evaluate the broader structure. However, according to technical analysis by Egrag Crypto, the recent crash has seen XRP fall just below the 33 EMA on the monthly candlestick chart.
Egrag based the recent price action on one critical condition: a confirmed monthly close below $1.60 and the 33 EMA. According to the analyst, such a closure would mean confirmation of macroscopic declines based on historical structure, not sentiments or opinions.
The chart he shared shows how XRP respects the 33 EMA as a long-term trend reference over multiple cycles, with breaches often preceding extended recovery phases. As shown in the chart below, XRP price has remained above the 33-EMA since early 2025, even during correction periods. However, XRP is currently trading dangerously close to this EMA and is at risk of a crash.
XRP price chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X
What does this mean for the XRP price structure
There is a risk that XRP can go to A macro bear structure. At the same time, it exists reason enough to suggest it upward rebound for cryptocurrency. The main point of Egrag’s analysis is historical results, which show that XRP’s strongest expansion did not require a pure bull market environment.
Therefore, there are two historical parallels to how XRP may play out in the current range around $1.60. The first is a repeat of the 2021-style move. This move, measured in a similar structural environment, would represent a bullish expansion of approximately 340% at a price target around the $7 region.
The second is a repeat of the 2017 cycle. Comparison to the 2017 cycle predicts a much larger structural expansion of around 1,600%, which would coincide with the $27 zone marked in the chart above. In both cases, the rallies were driven by oversold conditions and compression ranges, rather than powerful bullish macro confirmation as many would expect.
A breakdown below $1.60 could still lead to panic and reinforce fear-based narratives of a macro bear market, but these same conditions were previously zones where behind schedule sellers retreat just before volatility increases, according to the analysis.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
