Polymarket’s market insiders are pricing in a 77% chance of another U.S. government shutdown before the end of January, up 67% in the last 24 hours.
This comes as the CLARITY Act, a significant cryptocurrency bill aimed at providing greater regulatory clarity, is still making its way through Congress, with previous delays largely attributed to the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November.
Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted rising Polymarket shares in Saturday’s X post, noting that it came shortly after U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats will not “provide the votes to continue” the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included.
“What is happening in Minnesota is horrific and unacceptable in any American city,” Schumer said in a statement.
On Saturday morning, he reports emerged that US federal agents shot and killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis.
Trump did not rule out suspending operations in the future
Schumer said the DHS bill is “woefully inadequate to stop ICE abuses. I will vote no.”
US President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of another government shutdown at some point, fluent Fox Business on Thursday: “I think we have a problem because this will probably end up being another Democrat shutdown.”
This adds to uncertainty around the timeline of the CLARITY Act, which recently received a mixed response from the cryptocurrency industry after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other executives withdrew support.
“This version would be much worse than the current status quo. We would rather have no bill than a bad bill. Let’s hope we can all come up with a better bill,” Armstrong said on January 15.
TRANSPARENCY The timetable for the Act remains unclear
Head of Galaxy Digital Research, Alex Thorn it happened again Thursday’s report raised industry concerns that there is still uncertainty over the profitability of stablecoins, which the U.S. banking lobby says would weaken the competitiveness of the banking sector.
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“There is no significant indication yet that the two sides have found a compromise that could rejuvenate the bill’s prospects,” he said, adding that “an additional 4-6 weeks until a second attempt at markup should give the parties more time to work on it.”
Thorn said one of the “most important questions” is whether “stalled stablecoin reward negotiations can accelerate in the meantime to increase the chances that such a margin will result in mutual success.”
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