Bitcoin (BTC) fell again below the significant $90,000 level on Tuesday, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a fresh bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a fresh analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

Is $37,000 on the horizon?

Nine highlighted that while stocks are performing solidly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the cryptocurrency market is still struggling to gain traction. This situation raises a critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull market has peaked approximately 532 days after each halving. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin may have peaked in early October when it briefly touched $125,000.

Historical trends show that after these peaks, Bitcoin typically sees a significant decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds in the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential drop to around $37,000 in a full bear market.

A further look at broader, time-honored market dynamics provides further context. After a year characterized by good results on both the stock and commodity markets, market corrections are expected.

During periods of risk-off equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, helping to build pressure on the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that the key reference point for Bitcoin may be around $57,000, where the 200-week moving average (MA) is located.

Critical Bitcoin Support Levels to Watch

The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent price decline below the $90,000 mark are linked to increased volatility in global bond and stock markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.

Walter Bloomberg, market analysis expert, he noticed that various macroeconomic factors have contributed to the fresh downward trend, including President Trump’s renewed threats of tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies, which have contributed to market instability.

As a result, investors turned to safe-haven assets such as gold, which recently reached a record price of over $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underestimated.

There is also growing demand for downside protection in the Bitcoin options market, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines.

According to Bloomberg, the next significant price levels for Bitcoin in the near future will be between $84,000 and $85,000, which is expected to support BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to maintain these levels, fears of a deep bear market could become more pronounced.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com