Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s move above $97,000 is unconfirmed in derivatives markets, and the options tilt signals caution towards any sustained upside.

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• Geopolitical risks, falling treasury yields and weakening stocks are reinforcing a risk setting that continues to limit Bitcoin’s upside.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose to its highest level in over 60 days after posting a 5.5% gain on Wednesday. The move follows an inflow of $840 million into Bitcoin spot funds (ETFs) on Monday and Tuesday. Are further gains towards $105,000 likely in the near future as Bitcoin finds positive footing?

Bitcoin’s rise towards $97,000 contrasts with continued weakness in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 26,000 level last seen in early November 2025. Investor sentiment remains mixed as Bitcoin continues to trade 23% below its record high of $126,219, while gold and silver prices hit record highs in 2026, signaling a stronger bid for classic sheltered assets.

According to the BTC options delta deviation indicator, professional traders have not yet reached bullish levels as put (put) options continue to trade at a premium. The BTC option delta deviation is currently 4%, unchanged from a week ago, indicating stable risk perception despite the rise above $96,000 on Wednesday. Traders remain skeptical about sustained gains above the $100,000 level.

Bitcoin’s Advantage Limited by Increased Socio-Political Concerns

Typically, when whales and market makers become hopeful, the deviation turns negative, reflecting increased demand for neutral to bullish options strategies. Instead, Bitcoin bears were caught off guard as the recent price rally saw the liquidation of $370 million worth of leveraged brief positions (sells) in two days, the highest total since October 2025.

Some of the lack of optimism can be linked to geopolitical tensions following protests in Iran, which sparked military threats from US President Donald Trump, including a potential additional 25% import tariff on countries “doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Investors fear that if the proposal goes ahead, U.S. relations with China and India could deteriorate.

Investor confidence is also affected by the Trump administration’s intention to take control of Greenland. Trump argued that a self-governing Danish territory was crucial to U.S. national security. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has reportedly offered Denmark assistance in the event of a hostile takeover, According to to Polityka.

The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 3.51% on Wednesday, indicating that investors are accepting lower returns in exchange for the safety of government-backed bonds. This is particularly telling given that the latest U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) index was 2.7% year-over-year, above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target.

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, apparently warned that the lack of clarity about the future direction of artificial intelligence development is worrying. Reflecting this caution, Berkshire’s cash balance rose to a record $381.7 billion, up from $170 billion a year earlier.

The Nasdaq index fell 1.6% while shares of Oracle (ORCL US) fell 5% after bondholders filed a class-action lawsuit alleging the company failed to disclose the need to take on significant additional debt to expand its artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs on a rollercoaster as classic funds will attract $46 billion in 2026

As uncertainty mounted, investors reduced their exposure to equities, signaling a lower risk tolerance that is also limiting appetite for cryptocurrencies.

It is unclear whether Bitcoin has definitively ended its two-month bear market, but derivatives data shows that investors remain highly skeptical of a quick rally towards $105,000. For now, investors are focused on broader sociopolitical risks and whether the U.S. Federal Reserve can support economic growth without sparking inflation again.