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Global Payments Inc. (NYSE:GPN) shares are changing hands near 52-week lows amid “investor debate on underlying organic growth and potential share loss from commercial acquisition activity,” Mizuho Securities said in a recent note.
But the payments technology company does According to analyst Dan Dolev, there are several options that, if implemented, could facilitate reverse the bad sentiment.
“Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests that the combination of a potential sale of the Merchant Solutions business and spin-off of the Issuer could unlock ~30% of value,” he said.
Specifically, as stated in the note, the GPN issuer’s equity processing business is estimated to be valued at $40-$45 per share on a stand-alone, unleveraged basis. Relieving the struggling point-of-sale (“POS”) business could add another $145-$150 to the stock value (unleveraged) or a total GPN value of $125-$130 per share based on net debt per share of $62 USD.
Merchant Solutions’ adjusted operating income of $790.4 million in the first quarter decreased from $797.3 million in the prior-year quarter and increased from $688.3 million in the prior-year period. The Solutions Issuer’s adjusted operating income was $241.4 million in the first quarter, down from $251.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and up from $215.2 million in the first quarter of 2023.
Dolev pointed out that the Merchant unit’s continued currency revenue growth, excluding EVO and dispositions, has lagged that of key rival Fiserv (FI) since 2019. He added that the gap between them has increased in recent quarters.
“The main reason for slower growth may be the lack of branded POS solutions in GPN,” the analyst said. Companies with branded products, including Fiserv (FI), Toast (TOST), and Block (SQ), have achieved share gains in the North American POS industry. “Given the intense competition, GPN has difficulty both defending market share and organically acquiring new vendors as disruptive technologies from other vendors have accelerated the displacement of legacy GPN systems.”
Unlike Merchant, which is seeing GPN lose market share, its issuer processing business is doing well, with steady mid-single-digit core growth and expansion opportunities. The unit represents 20-25% of the $8-9 billion total addressable market, Dolev said, “with the potential to double TAM through expansion into products such as fraud and risk management, digital and commercial payments.”
Dolev said the market could reward Global Payments (GPN) if it decides to spin off its point-of-sale business. Recall last year that rival Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) sold a majority stake in its Merchant Solutions company, known as Worldpay, after purchasing it for approximately $35 billion in 2019. Markets responded positively, with shares up approximately 40% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, GPN stock underperformed its competitors and the market. Over the past five years, GPN is down 37% compared with an 89% gain for the S&P 500 index and a 16% gain for the legacy payments group, said Dolev, who has a neutral rating on GPN.