• The American dollar is gaining on Friday, raised by the renovated tariff threats of the US president and the expectations of low -term Fed interest rates disappear.
• Trump attacks Canada with a 35% tariff, citing fears of fentanyl and commercial imbalances.
• DXY rises below the key resistance at 97.80–98.00, with a price supported by a 9-day EMA at 97.50

The American dollar gains strength on Friday, supported by renovated tariff threats on the part of US President Donald Trump, which again aroused global trade tensions and caused a novel wave of risk aversion. As the voltage escalated, investors are becoming more and more cautious, favors the status of Greenback as a unthreatening marina. This change of moods increased the American dollar index (DXY) because the markets are preparing for potential changes in monetary policy.

The American dollar index (DXY), which follows Greenback’s results against the basket of main currencies, trades flat during the American session on Friday, maintaining stable before the weekend. At the time of writing, the index floats around 97.89, about 0.30% during the day and registered a weekly raise of over 0.8%. However, the indicator fights to part over the technical resistance levels that currently limit the further position.

US President Donald Trump escalated tariff tensions this week, sending warning letters to over 20 countries, including main trade partners, such as Canada, Japan and South Korea, and also threatens smaller economies with tariffs from 15% to even 50%, based on the commercial relations of each country with every country with every country United States (US). The letters, divided on the Trump Truth Social Social Platform, reflect his challenging position on trade and are a warning that the US will impose a wide “mutual” tariffs, unless trading partners agree to more favorable conditions.

As part of the last pushing, Trump announced a 35% tariff for Canadian imports, in force on August 1. In the official letter to the Canadian Prime Minister Marek Carney, the American president quoted allegedly the lack of prevention of Fentanyl’s flow to the USA, as well as long -term commercial properties and high tariffs for Dairy Exports exports. The document warned that all retaliation tariffs imposed by Canada would meet equivalent additional fees, except 35%. Trump also emphasized that goods transferred by Canada to bypass duties would be subject to a higher rate, unless they are produced in the USA.

In addition, the US President signaled that all other trading partners who have not yet received specific tariff letters or non -finalized trade agreements will be affected by general tariffs of 15% or 20%. Trump also added that members of the European Union (EU) would receive letters notifying them about the novel tariff rates “Today or tomorrow.” Economists warn that such extensive funds can raise import costs, tailor inflation and cause retaliation, thanks to which global commercial negotiations are more burdened in the coming months.

Marketplace: The State Treasury gives a stable, fed with careful tariff precipitation

• USD/CAD has gathered by almost 0.5% to the highest level of 1.3731 before alleviating below 1.3700, after the announcement of novel tariffs for Canadian Canadian imports. The US clerk later explained that the 35% of the tariffs will apply only to goods not covered by the United States agreement-masic-rampada (USMCA). The last tariff movement seems to be a strategic tactic of pressure to force Canada to finalize the amended trade agreement with the US before July 21. This term was set by the Canadian Prime Minister Marek Carney after meeting Trump at the G7 summit in Canada in mid -June. This was formulated as a 30-day schedule to negotiate a novel economic and security relationship.
• In 2024, the United States brought goods worth over $ 600 billion from the European Union and over $ 400 billion from Canada, which makes them two most significant trade partners of the country.
• The capacity of the 10-year US tax note stabilized about 4.36%on Friday, limiting the unstable week marked by increased trade voltages and changing the expectations regarding the monetary policy of the federal reserve. Investors’ sentiments remained cautious, and ETF focused on the treasury records a acute raise in influx, signaling the increased demand for unthreatening assets. The success of long -term profitability reflects the guarded economic perspectives and can play a key role in shaping the low -term direction of the American dollar.
• With expectations regarding the reduction of interest rates (FED), the American dollar still attracts support, strengthened by the latest signs of strength on the American labor market. The weekly initial claims of unemployment appeared below expectations in the third week in a row, strengthening the view that the economy remains resistant.
• Speaking on Thursday, FED officials suggested that novel tariffs may not lead to a rapid raise in consumer prices. President San Francisco Fed Mary Daly noticed that the tariffs “simply do not materialize to a large increase in price inflation for consumers, because companies find ways to adapt.” By marking this view, the President of Chicago Fed, Austan Goolsbee, said that the influence on inflation was so far “surprisingly little”, indicating that price pressure could remain constrained, even when commercial voltages escalate.
• Also on Thursday, the Governor Fed Christopher Waller confirmed his support for the July rate reduction, stating that “inflation has fallen far enough to justify the move – and the tariffs should not necessarily be the reason for the delay.” Meanwhile, the President of St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem said: “Tariffs will take some time. This year we could be in the fourth quarter or the second quarter or the second quarter next year in which the tariffs are still working in the economy.”
• In general, the solid American economic background gives Feder time to assess the impact of recent tariff ads on inflation and raise before further rate reductions. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, markets value only a 6.7% chance of reduction of interest rates worth 25 base in July, by 62.2% of the probability of lowering in September, taking into account about 100 base points with a total alleviation in the next 12 months.
• The consumer price indicator in June (CPI) is to be Tuesday, July 15 and can give tons of the market direction in the second half of July. Estimates of the consensus indicate an raise of 0.3% moments on both the main and spinal CPI, which means a potential response from more softer readings. Since the federal reserve is still in the data dependent mode, each positive surprise in inflation could relieve expectations of foot reductions this year, raise the treasury disk and support the American dollar.

Technical analysis: American dollar indicator consolidates below 98.00, technical approach

American dollar index (DXY) trades on Friday near 97.89, with modest profits, because it is approaching the key technical zone. The indicator rises just below the 21-day interpretation of the movable average (EMA), currently 97.77, which is in line with the upper limit of the falling Klin formula and the zone 97.80-98.00-a support area that currently acts as resistance. This confluence is a key low -term barrier. The decisive break above this level can confirm the stubborn reversal by opening the door in the direction of 98.50, near the height of June 24.

On the other hand, the 9-day EMA acts as short-term active support near 97.50, helping to depreciate the last withdrawal. This level consistently persisted within three days, limiting inheritance pressure when the American dollar consolidates in the exacerbation.

Momentum indicators They show early signs of recovery, with a relative force indicator (RSI) rise to 47.12, although still below the neutral level 50, which suggests that the shoot remains in development. The average directional indicator (ADX) at 13.2 reflects a destitute general trend, which indicates that a clear directional output has not yet materialized. While wider configuration seems to be carefully constructive, bulls need a sturdy everyday close to 98.00 to confirm the lasting potential of growth.