Edges of gold prices higher as S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reached fresh records

The price of gold changes in the direction of USD 3300, but the profit of American capital.
Fiscal fears are circulating when Trump’s huge lovely tax calculation focuses before the date of July 4.
XAU/USD looks at the future at the Thursday Non -Farmy report (NFP) for signs when the Fed can lower the rates.

Gold (Xau/USD) still trades below USD 3300 at a time when markets are preparing for increased variability before Friday’s Independence Day in the USA.
Political development in the United States took a central place, and the administration of President Donald Trump accelerated efforts to adopt “One Big Beautiful Bill” imposed on the date on July 4. Legislation, which over the weekend, has been subject to a wide review of the Tax Code, including broad deductions financed from cuts of Medicaid and Green Energy programs.
Despite the political uncertainty, the capital markets remain floating, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieve fresh record maxima on Monday, reflecting the continuous appetite of investors at risk.
The non -farm Payrolls (NFP) report in June is scheduled for Thursday of that time, earlier than usual because of the holidays on the day of the fourth of July in the USA on Friday.
Traders set up carefully, expecting potential changes in currency and performance dynamics that could raise the demand for precious metal.

Daily Digest Market Run: Gold remains careful before the great lovely account of President Trump

The proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” raises concerns about the US deficit balloon. Investors are afraid that aggressive tax reductions, in combination with a reduction in government expenditure, can erosion fiscal discipline and fuel long -term inflation, supporting the demand for gold as security.
This increased the market sensitivity to the US political development, potentially pressing the American dollar (USD) and raising Xau/USD.
The expectations that the tax policy based on the deficit may again distinguish inflationary concerns and additionally strengthen the role of gold as a warehouse. Metal can continue to operate if Real Us will give ease, because investors again assess politics.
A weaker American dollar, resulting from fiscal or cash policy, can make gold more attractive to foreign buyers.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve Powell is to speak on Tuesday. Markets will thoroughly analyze its tone of policy guidelines when the Fed will reduce interest rates. Any comments to pigeons can weaken the dollar and raise the demand for gold.
The change in employment ADP on Wednesday measures the strength of the labor market in the private sector. Wednesday printing is to show 85,000 jobs added to the American private sector in June, compared to only 37,000 in May. As a carefully observed precursor of the NFP report, a cushioned print can raise the unthreatening demand for gold.
It is expected that the exemption of data from non -parish remuneration is to drop to 110,000 in June from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to raise to 4.3% from 4.2%. An raise in unemployment can raise the expectations of the Fed’s interest rate, which supports undetermined assets such as gold.
According to the Fed, the price indicator of expenses for the US personal consumption (PCE), which is carefully viewed by the FED. Because the central bank is the target of 2% inflation rate, a printout with higher than expected strengthens the view that inflation remains increased. This can complicate the prospects of monetary policy, potentially delaying the cutting of rates and limiting brief -term profits for gold.

Gold technical analysis: A descendant triangle indicates a risk of a decline below USD 3300

Gold trades on USD 3,285 at the time of writing on Monday, constrained between 50% and 38.2% of Fibonacci retacts in a low -level April movement, respectively 3228 and 3292 USD.

The last break below both 20-day and 50-day straight average movable (SMA), which provide additional resistance above 3300 USD 3350 and USD 3300, respectively.

Metal recovery attempts remain constrained by the resistance around 38.2% Fibonacci The level of recovery of USD 3,292, while the inheritance risk persists as the momentum is weakened.

Gold (Xau/USD) Daily chart

The relative force indicator (RSI) on the daily table is currently directed down, nearly 44, which indicates an raise in the bearing of the bear without entering the sale of the sale. Daily closing below USD 3228 can open the door towards 100-day SMA after USD 3168, while you would need a continuous push above USD 3292 to transfer short-term mood back to the plus.

FAQ in American dollars

The American dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America and the “de facto” currency of a significant number of other countries where it is in circulation with local notes. It is most often a commercial currency in the world, which is over 88% of all global currency turnover, i.e. an average of $ 6.6 trillion of transactions per day, according to the data from 2022. After the Second World War, USD took over from the British pound as the reserve currency of the world. For most of its history, the American dollar was supported by gold, up to the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, when the golden standard disappeared.

The most essential single factor affecting the value of the American dollar is the monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (FED). The Fed has two seats: achieving price stability (control inflation) and supporting full employment. Its main tool to achieve these two goals is to adjust interest rates. When the prices rise too quickly and inflation is above 2% of the Fed target, the FED will raise the rates, which helps USD values. When inflation drops below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed may reduce interest rates that are weighing in the green area.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and introduce quantitative alleviation (QE). QE is a process in which the Fed significantly increases the credit flow in the detained financial system. It is a non -standard policy measure used in the event of a loan parched, because the banks will not borrow (for fear of the contractor). This is the last last, when just lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. The weapon of choosing the Fed was a FED weapon to combat the credit crisis, which took place during the great financial crisis in 2008. This includes FED printing more dollars and using them to buy US government bonds mainly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker American dollar.

Quantitative twist (QT) is the opposite process in which the federal reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest from the bonds that it has in fresh purchases. This is usually positive for the American dollar.