- EUR/USD up by 0.36%, set at the end of the week after Trump delays the military action against Iran.
- Waller’s call to the July excision contrasts with the Fed report and a careful attitude of Barkin.
- EU – USA trade agreement in Jeopardy as the date of 9 July approaches, limiting the growth potential.
Euro regains some land in relation to the American dollar on Friday and is to end the week virtually flat Risk appetite deteriorates. This is done despite the fact that US President Donald Trump delays military intervention in the conflict of Israel and Iran. At the time of writing EUR/USD Trade at 1.1534, which is an enhance of 0.36%.
The market appetite has become negative due to the commercial policy in the US limiting Chiper with production interests in China as the highest US official who tries to cancel the exemptions that caused the collapse of the main US indicators. In the meantime, Trump’s decision to support diplomacy on the fight, delaying a possible attack by two weeks, delayed the common currency. Nevertheless, Iran said that he would not negotiate when Israel continued his war.
Another event that increased the euro Federal reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller announces that he supports the rate reduction in July. Unlike the Monetary Policy Report, Fed suggested that the current policy is well prepared among the uncertainty of external shocks, while President Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin favored further patience before reducing the indicators.
Despite this, EUR/USD can be pressed on a lack of commercial agreement between the European Union (EU) United States. The chances of a contract decrease when the clock goes to July 9.
On the front of the EU data, she revealed that the EU consumer trust indicator disappointed investors, although traders shrugged from bad reading and led EUR/USD higher.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change in the euro (EUR) compared to the main currencies this week. The euro was the strongest in relation to the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.88% | 1.05% | 1.17% | 0.53% | 0.88% | 0.80% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | 0.59% | 0.86% | 1.00% | 0.49% | 0.71% | 0.62% | |
| GBP | -0.88% | -0.59% | 0.29% | 0.41% | -0.11% | 0.12% | 0.04% | |
| JPy | -1.05% | -0.86% | -0.29% | 0.11% | -0.82% | -0.54% | -0.66% | |
| BOOR | -1,17% | -1.00% | -0.41% | -0.11% | -0.56% | -0.29% | -0.37% | |
| Aud | -0.53% | -0.49% | 0.11% | 0.82% | 0.56% | 0.23% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | -0.88% | -0.71% | -0.12% | 0.54% | 0.29% | -0.23% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.80% | -0.62% | -0.04% | 0.66% | 0.37% | -0.14% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the euro on the left column and go along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: EUR/USD moves the arms of Jastrzębie Jastrzębie and rallies
- Geopolitics will continue to manage the price, which has so far brought further recognition of the American dollar. Therefore, the risk environment will most likely reduce the EUR/USD, despite the fact that trade “sell America” remains intact.
- Fresh data from the United States signaled the cooling balance, and in June the Fed Fed production indicator in Philadelphia took place at level -4, it has not been changed since May, but there is no expectations for a more compact contraction -1.
- Fed chairman Jerome Powell said that the bank is in waiting and seeing, adding that politics is modestly restrictive. He added that as long as the labor market remains solid and inflation cools down, the rates are maintained “the right thing to do.”
- During the week, the Fed maintained rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. FED officials updated their economic forecasts, reducing the prospects of GDP growth 2025 to 1.4% from 1.7% in March. The unemployment rate forecast has been changed to 4.5% from 4.4%, while the basic PCE inflation forecast increased to 3.1% from 2.8%.
- The trust of EU consumers in June fell to -15.3, worse than expected -14.5 improvements.
- Financial market players do not expect ECB to reduce the rate of deposit interference by 25 base points (BPS) at the July monetary policy meeting.
Euro technical perspectives: EUR/USD climbs above 1.1500, Bulls Target 1.1550
From a technical point of view, resumption of EUR/USD resumption. The price action suggests that the three -time pattern of the “Morning Star” chart implies that the buyers are gathering, ready to enhance the exchange rate. Further confirmation is provided by a relative force indicator (RSI), which aims to enhance after dragging for two days.
Therefore, the first eur/USD resistance would be 1,1550. The violation of the latter will reveal 1,1600, and then at a high level of 1.1631. And vice versa, daily closure below 1.1500 paves the testing method 1.1450. The next key service would be a 20-day straight movable average (SMA) at 1.1438, followed by 1,1400.
EBC FAQ
The European Central Bank (EBC) in Frankfurt, Germany is a bank reserve bank. EBC establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The basic mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means maintaining inflation at about 2%. Its main tool to achieve this is to enhance or reduce interest rates. Relatively high interest rates usually cause a stronger euro and vice versa. The ECB Managing Council makes decisions regarding monetary policy at meetings taking place eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of national banks of the euro area and six lasting members, including the President of EBC, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank may protect the political tool called quantitative fox. QE is a process in which ECB prints the euro and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually causes a weaker euro. QE is a last resort when just lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the goal of price stability. EBC used it during the great financial crisis in 2009–2011, in 2015, when inflation remained stubborn low, as well as during Covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. This is undertaken after QE when economic recovery is underway and inflation begins to grow. While in QE, the European Central Bank (EBC) buys government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to ensure them liquidity, in QT EBC it stops buying more bonds and stops reinvesting the main maturation in the bonds it already has. It is usually positive (or stubborn) for the euro.
