- The Australian dollar is in the face of the wind when the Trump administration moves to add several Chinese chip manufacturers to the black export list.
- Audius remains under pressure despite a powerful report from the Australian labor market showing solid profits from work in April.
- The American Dollar is still trading in a narrow range because the last economic data in the US has sent mixed signals to the market.
The Australian dollar (AUD) expands its decline in relation to the US dollar (USD) on the third in a row session on Friday. The Aud is under pressure, probably due to reports that Trump’s administration plans to add several Chinese chips producers to its black export list, known as “List of Being”. Considering close commercial relations between Australia and China, all disruptions on the Chinese market can significantly affect the Australian dollar.
According to the Financial Times, Trump administration officials expressed concerns at the end of Thursday that imposing export control to key Chinese companies at this stage may undermine the recently achieved trade agreement between China and the USA during talks in Geneva at the weekend.
Aud is fighting despite a powerful report from the Australian labor market, which recorded a powerful augment in employment in April. The Aud/USD pair fought, even when the green weakened after economic data, which fueled the speculation of the Federal Reserve (FED) may resume interest rates in the coming months.
Aud/USD sensitive to the risk did not benefit from alleviating global commercial tensions. The senior adviser to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Shamkhani, said on Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear agreement with US President Donald Trump. In addition, the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement, under which the US will reduce the tariffs for Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce the features of US imports from 125% to 10%.
The Australian dollar fights despite the weaker American dollar among better risk moods
- The American dollar index (DXY), which follows Greenback against the basket of six main currencies, is about 100.60 at the time of writing. Economic data in the USA this week provided mixed signals – displaying the resistance of the economy, while indicating a slowdown in the growth rate, which maintained the dollar narrow to a narrow commercial range.
- The price indicator of the American manufacturer (PPI) increased by 2.4% year -on -year in April, soothing by 2.7% in March, and market expectations by 2.5%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 3.1% per year, compared to the previous 4%. For every month, the PPI header fell by 0.5%, while the PPI core dropped by 0.4%.
- The initial unemployed claims in the USA in a week ending on May 10 amounted to 229,000, unchanged from the changed number in the previous week and as expected, according to the American Labor Department (Dol). The continuation of the unemployment claims increased by 9,000, reaching 1.881 million in the week ending on May 3.
- The US consumer price indicator (CPI) increased by 2.3% year -on -year in April, just below 2.4% of the augment recorded in March and market expectations by 2.4%. Core CPI – which excludes food and energy – also increased by 2.8% per year, corresponding to both the previous number and forecasts. Every month, both the CPI and Core CPI header increased by 0.2% in April.
- US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he is working on gaining greater access to China, describing the relationship as excellent and expressing readiness to directly negotiate with President XI on a potential contract.
- According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), employment increased by 89,000 in April, much higher than 36,400 statuesque in March and much above 20,000 forecasting. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
- The salary price index in Australia increased by 3.4% year -on -year in Q1 2025, compared to 3.2% augment in quarter of 2024 and exceeding market forecasts by 3.2% growth. This means recovering from the previous quarter, which recorded the slowest augment in wages from the quarter of 2022. In the quarter, the index increased by 0.9% in the first quarter, exceeding the expected augment by 0.8%.
- Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was sworn in for the second term on Tuesday after the decisive election victory. The key positions of the office – including the treasurer, foreign affairs, defense and trade – have unchanged. Albanese is to take part in the inaugural mass of Pope Leo XIV in Rome on Sunday, where he will also meet with leaders, such as the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in order to discuss trade relations.
- Combating global commercial tensions prompted investors to reduce the expectations of aggressive interest rates in Australia. Markets are now designing the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) to reduce the money to about 3.1% at the end of the year, which is a change from earlier forecasts 2.85%. Nevertheless, RBA is still expected to continue the reduction of the base point at the upcoming political meeting.
The Australian dollar finds the support of about 0.6400 after breaking below nine EMA days
Aud/USD floats around 0.6410 on Friday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates bear, because the pair trads below the nine -day interpretation of the movable medium (EMA). However, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) remains above level 50, signaling that a stubborn shoot persists despite the inheritance pressure.
Immediate support lies at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6355. The decisive break below these levels may worsen short-term and medium-term perspective and pave the way for deeper sliding in the direction of 0.5914- the last last seen in March 2020.
On the other hand, the resistance is evident on a nine -day EMA near 0.6417. The break above this can lead a pair to complement a six -month maximum 0.6515, registered on December 2, 2024. The maintenance of the rally, apart from this point, may direct the highest level of seven -month 0.6687 from November 2024.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows a percentage change in the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the stock exchange of the main currencies. The Australian dollar was the strongest in relation to the dollar of New Zealand.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.09% | -0.38% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.11% | -0.20% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.26% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | -0.11% | -0.29% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.24% | |
| JPy | 0.38% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.42% | 0.04% | |
| BOOR | 0.06% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.33% | 0.00% | 0.13% | -0.27% | |
| Aud | 0.04% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.33% | -0.00% | 0.11% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.42% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | 0.34% | 0.14% | 0.24% | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar on the left column and move along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quote).
Australian dollar questions
One of the most crucial factors of the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a country prosperous in resources, another key driver is the price of its greatest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trade partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, growth rate and commercial balance. Market sentiments-no matter how investors take more risky assets (risk) or are looking for secure people (risk)-there is also a factor and a positive risk for AUD.
Bank Reserve Australia (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD), setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can borrow each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other main central banks support Aud and contrary to relatively low. RBA can also employ quantitative alleviation and tightening to affect credit conditions, with a former negative Aud and the second positive Aud.
China is the largest trading partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy has a enormous impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, raising the demand for Aud and increasing its value. On the contrary, when the Chinese economy does not grow as quick as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its steam.
The ore of iron is the largest export in Australia, which is $ 118 billion a year according to the details of 2021, and China as the main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be the driving force of the Australian dollar. Basically, if the price of iron ore increases, the audience also increases, as the aggregate demand for currency increases. Otherwise, the price of iron ore will fall. Higher prices of iron ore also cause a greater probability of a positive trade balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what the country earns on exports compared to what it pays for imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces a highly sought after export, its currency will gain value only from the surplus of demand created by foreign buyers who want to buy exports compared to what it spends on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens Aud, with reverse effect if the trade balance is negative.
