- EUR/USD moves below 1.1100 as a rally of the American dollar after the US and China agreed to lower the tariffs by 115% to 90 days.
- It is expected that the ephemeral commercial truce of the US-Chin will tame the increased inflation expectations of consumers.
- EBC Schnabel does not see the need to further lower interest rates.
EUR/USD fell by over 1% nearly 1.1100 in North American commercial hours on Monday. The main currency pair faces intensive sales pressure when the American dollar (USD) rally after United States (USA) and China in a joint statement announced a higher than expected reduction of tariffs on 90 days imposed in April.
The American dollar index (DXY), which follows the Greenback value compared to the six main currencies, will augment to almost 101.60.
During the planned briefings during the European Trade Session on Monday, USA and China agreed to lower the tariff by 115%. The tariffs on the USA and China fell to 10% and 30%, respectively. Import duties in China still have a burden of 20% of the fentanyl fee. However, Washington assured that it could be solved soon. “Two pages have constructive conversations about fentanyl,” said US trade representative Jamieson Greer. In addition, Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the US Treasury, said: “If China is working, maybe a fentanyl tariff may drop,” reports Reuters.
Before US-China’s commercial talks in Geneva at the weekend, US President Donald Trump stated on Friday that he could lower the tariff to China to 80% through a post to truth. Social. “80% tariff to China seems appropriate! It depends on Scott Bessent,” said Trump.
Next trigger for American dollar There will be a comment with Federal reserve (Fed) Officials with monetary policy perspectives Followed by de-escalation in the Sino-Us trade war. FED officials are expected to change their interest rate perspectives, because the inverted tariff war will reduce the increased expectations of consumer inflation.
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned at a press conference after the Central Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates Unchanged that the announced tariffs were “much greater than expected” and we will see “higher inflation and lower employment” if there are high increases in tariffs that will be announced.
Daily Digest Market Movers: EUR/USD falls due to a lack of progress in US-EU trade talks
- EUR/USD will fall on Monday, when the American dollar falls rapidly after the US and China lowered the tariffs. EUR (EUR) trades lower in relation to other currencies, while investors are looking for tips on how the ephemeral US-chin trading will affect the economic perspectives in the euro area.
- Before Sino-Us’s commercial talks, financial market participants expected that the trade war between the two largest world economic countries would be unfavorable for the common continent, assuming that Beijing would move to other markets to sell its products to balance the impact of the trading war with Washington. Given the budget-friendly competitive advantage of China, its products can be destructive for the global economy.
- After the US presented a 90-day tariff pause with China, a double-sided agreement with Great Britain and progress in commercial conversations with Japan, India and other nations, there is no announcement regarding commercial discussions with the European Union (EU) for euros. Investors perceive the script as unfavorable for economic prospects in the euro area, assuming that the trust of market participants will decrease in the economy if uncertainty does not prevail.
- Meanwhile, the company’s expectations that the European Central Bank (EBC) can continue the series of monetary policy expansion after softening inflationary pressure also act as a wind for the euro. The sequence of EBC officials signaled that more interest rates are needed among trade voltages from the USA, while maintaining the confidence that the trend of disinfection is intact.
- Unlike several officials confirming more interest rate reductions, a member of the management board of ECB Isabel Schnabel signaled that there is no need to further reduce interest rates. “The right way to act is to keep the rates close to the place where they are today – that is, at a neutral territory,” said Schnabel at a conference at Stanford University on Friday. Schnabel warned about the risk of inflation exceeding 2% of the central bank’s goal in the medium -sized period among global economic riots.
- On the economic front, the American consumer price indicator (CPI) in April will be influenced on the economic front, which will be published on Tuesday. Inflation data is expected to show that the CPI header has constantly increased by 2.4%.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the euro (EUR) in relation to the main currencies. The euro was the strongest against Jen Japanese.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.15% | 0.82% | 1.15% | 0.67% | 0.35% | 0.71% | 0.95% | |
| EUR | -1,15% | -0.20% | 0.54% | 0.01% | -0.16% | 0.05% | 0.28% | |
| GBP | -0.82% | 0.20% | 0.94% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.48% | |
| JPy | -1,15% | -0.54% | -0.94% | -0.49% | -1.41% | -1.29% | -0.43% | |
| BOOR | -0.67% | -0.01% | -0.21% | 0.49% | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.27% | |
| Aud | -0.35% | 0.16% | -0.05% | 1.41% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.05% | -0.17% | 1.29% | -0.04% | -0.11% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.95% | -0.28% | -0.48% | 0.43% | -0.27% | -0.41% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the euro on the left column and go along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical analysis: EUR/USD slides below 200-speed EMA
EUR/USD decreases on Monday after a breakdown of 1,1200-1.1440 created in the last 20 trading days. The main pair of currencies extends their disadvantages below 200-period interpretation of the movable medium (EMA), which is about 1,1200, which indicates the bear.
The 14-section relative strength (RSI) indicator moves below 40.00, which suggests that freshly trust was caused.
Looking up, the highest level of April 28 1.1425 will be the main resistance to the couple. And vice versa, on March 27, the lowest 1.0733 will be a key support for the euro bulls.
