- The Australian dollar stagnated when the change of employment was 32.2k, compared to the 40k consensus forecast.
- The Australian unemployment rate increased in March to 4.1%, slightly below the market forecast of 4.2%.
- The American dollar received support due to stronger consumer expenses in March.
The Australian dollar (Aud) is lower in relation to the US dollar (USD), shooting a six -day victory series. The Aud/USD pair remains under pressure after issuing employment data in Australia on Thursday, which showed that the unemployment rate will enhance to 4.1% in March, slightly below the 4.2% market forecast. Meanwhile, the change of employment reached 32.2k, compared to the 40k consensus forecast.
The audience found some support from improved global risk moods after US President Donald Trump announced release from key technological products from newly proposed “mutual” tariffs. These exemptions, which include smartphones, computers, semiconductors, sunlight and flat displays, largely benefit the goods produced in China, the largest trading partner in Australia and the main buyer of its goods.
Markets remain cautious among the constant uncertainty related to trade policy in the USA. Trump’s administration is now considering tariffs regarding the import of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. On the national front of The Reserve Bank of Australia in April (RBA) Policy Policy Minutes suggested uncertainty as to the date of the next interest rate correction.
Although RBA suggested that the May meeting may be the right time to re -assess monetary policy, no decision was made. Markets are currently valued at a point reduction at 25 BASIS in May, with expectations of about 120 base points facilitating over the following year. Note is now addressing a Thursday employment report, which can offer key information on the labor market and direct the next RBA policy movement.
The Australian dollar is absorbed as a collection of an American dollar due to stronger consumer expenditure
- The American dollar index (DXY), which follows USD in relation to the basket of six main currencies, at the time of writing is almost 99.60. Permits for the construction of the USA, housing start -up, Philly Fed production index and weekly initial unemployment claims will be published on Thursday.
- Retail sales in the USA increased in March by 1.4%, and then an enhance of 0.2% observed in February. This number was better than 1.3%estimation.
- A recent study of consumer moods conducted by the Federal Reserve in New York shows a rapid enhance in the number of households expecting higher inflation, weaker work prospects and deteriorating credit conditions in the coming months.
- At the beginning of Tuesday’s market session, President of Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, has still had a long way to achieve a 2% target inflation target, raising doubts about market expectations as to additional interest rates.
- The US consumer price indicator (CPI) softened 2.4% year -on -year in March, compared to 2.8% in February and below the market forecast 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes the prices of food and energy, increased by 2.8% per year, compared to 3.1% earlier and there are 3.0% estimates. For every month, the CPI header dropped by 0.1%, while CPI Core increased by 0.1%.
- The six -month annual growth rate of the Westpac index in Australia, which provides an economic rush compared to the trend over the next three to nine months, softened 0.6% in March with 0.9% in February.
- In the first quarter of 2025, the Chinese economy increased by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations by 5.1%. Quarterly GDP increased by 1.2% in the first quarter, after an enhance of 1.6% in the previous quarter, not reaching the forecast growth by 1.4%.
- Meanwhile, Chinese retail sales increased by 5.9% year -on -year, overcoming expectations by 4.2% and more than 4% of February. Industrial production also achieved better results, growing by 7.7% compared to the 5.6% forecast and print 5.9% of February.
The Australian dollar is testing immediate support at 0.6350, despite the intact prejudices
The Aud/USD pair is located on Thursday near 0.6360, and the technical indicators on the daily chart suggest stubborn bias. The pair remains above the nine-day interpretation of the movable average (EMA), while the 14-day relative strength (RSI) indicator is above the neutral level 50, strengthening the positive shoot.
On the other hand, the key resistance is apparent at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by a four -month maximum 0.6408, recently on February 21.
Initial support is located at a 9-day EMA around 0.6285. The break below this level may undermine the short-term trend stubborn and potentially expose the pair to further declines towards the region of 0.5914-the lowest from March 2020-a critical psychological level at 0.5900.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows a percentage change in the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the stock exchange of the main currencies. The Australian dollar was the weakest in relation to the American dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.48% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.07% | 0.31% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | 0.07% | 0.38% | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.14% | 0.35% | |
| JPy | -0.51% | -0.31% | -0.38% | -0.40% | -0.37% | -0.35% | -0.05% | |
| BOOR | -0.13% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.40% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.36% | |
| Aud | -0.15% | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.37% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.31% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.06% | -0.14% | 0.35% | -0.14% | -0.11% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.48% | -0.27% | -0.35% | 0.05% | -0.36% | -0.31% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar on the left column and move along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quote).
Australian dollar questions
One of the most critical factors of the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a country affluent in resources, another key driver is the price of its greatest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trade partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, growth rate and commercial balance. Market sentiments-no matter how investors take more risky assets (risk) or are looking for secure people (risk)-there is also a factor and a positive risk for AUD.
Bank Reserve Australia (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD), setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can borrow each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other main central banks support Aud and contrary to relatively low. RBA can also employ quantitative alleviation and tightening to affect credit conditions, with a former negative Aud and the second positive Aud.
China is the largest trading partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy has a enormous impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, raising the demand for Aud and increasing its value. On the contrary, when the Chinese economy does not grow as quick as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its steam.
The ore of iron is the largest export in Australia, which is $ 118 billion a year according to the details of 2021, and China as the main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be the driving force of the Australian dollar. Basically, if the price of iron ore increases, the audience also increases, as the aggregate demand for currency increases. Otherwise, the price of iron ore will fall. Higher prices of iron ore also cause a greater probability of a positive trade balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what the country earns on exports compared to what it pays for imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces a highly sought after export, its currency will gain value only from the surplus of demand created by foreign buyers who want to buy exports compared to what it spends on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens Aud, with reverse effect if the trade balance is negative.
