NPC set growth goals at 5%, inflation 2%, official budget deficit of 4%GDP, mainly, as we expected. We expect that the fiscal stimulus announced for partial has compensated for the influence of American tariffs announced so far. We maintain our growth forecast for 2025 at 4.5%; The inheritance risk, which should be reduced by an additional stimulus, is noted by the economists of Standard Charted.

If necessary, stimulation for transhipment may be strengthened

“Meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) began today; Primer Li Qiang outlined China’s economic and political priorities for 2025 in a government report. Most of the announced numerical goals (Fig. 1) were in line with our expectations. A political tone was maintained, consistent with the Central Economic Work Conference in December. “

“Fiscal policy remains the subject of the market. Although the official fiscal deficit was expanded to 4% of GDP in 2025, the amount of government bond emissions (11.86tn) was slightly lower than we expected. Earlier further details of the budget report (especially other financing deficits), our forecast deficit remains by 8.4% of PDP, C. The stimulus plan is insufficient to balance the latest tariff increases in the US and expect that the additional stimulus will be introduced if the H1 growth drive indicates a significant inheritance risk. “

“The government emphasized its support for consumption and household income. In addition, he undertook to stabilize real estate and exchange markets, maintaining technology and green development as priorities. On the outer front, the government plans to continue openly “one way”, despite the growing protectionism around the world. “