• The Australian dollar developed when the Chinese government announced an annual political declaration on Sunday for 2025.
• The Audi received support from the announcement of President Trump about potential progress in commercial negotiations with China.
• American dollar fights after reduced American economic data published last week.

The Australian dollar (AUD) resigns from the last losses from the previous session on Monday after issuing the annual statement of Chinese policy for 2025 on Sunday. The statement describes the strategies for solving rural reforms and promoting comprehensive revitalization in rural areas. Optimism around Chinese stimulus plans can be strengthened by Aud, taking into account the role of China as a key trading partner in Australia.

The Aud/USD couple also gained the basis when US President Donald Trump announced potential progress in commercial negotiations with China, soothing market fears regarding tariffs. Investors will strictly monitor Trump’s further tariff headers.

The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) reduced the official cash (OCR) by 25 base points to 4.10% last week – the first rate reduction in four years. The Governor of the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) Michele Bullock recognized the impact of high interest rates, but warned that it was too early to announce the victory over inflation. She also emphasized the strength of the labor market and explained that future rate reductions are not guaranteed, despite market expectations.

The Australian dollar strengthens when the US dollar is in the midst of disappointing economic data

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures USD in relation to the six main currencies, absorbs below 106.50 at the time of writing. DXY faced the challenges after reduced economic data in the US, including the unemployed claims of S&P Global Managers Managers’ Index (PMI) published last week.
• PMI fallen in the US fell to 50.4 in February compared to 52.7 earlier. Meanwhile, PMI production increased from 51.2 in February to 51.6 in January, beating 51.5. Finally, PMI services dropped from 52.9 in January to 49.7 in February, weaker than expected 53.0.
• The initial unemployed claims in the USA in a week ending on February 14 increased to 219,000, exceeding the expected 215,000. Meanwhile, continuous unemployment claims increased to 1.869 million, slightly below the 1.87 million forecast.
• The Governor of the Federal Reserve Council, Adriana Kugler, stated on Thursday that US inflation still has a “path” before reaching a 2% goal of the central bank, noticing that the path remains uncertain, according to Reuters.
• President of St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalea warned against the potential risk of staglation and the growing expectations of inflation. Meanwhile, the President of Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, has retained the possibility of opening two rates depending on economic development.
• President Trump pointed out that a recent trade agreement with China is possible and expects to visit the President of China XI Jinping. He also mentioned with China about Tiktok and noticed that his administration is considering a 25% tariff for sawn and forestry products.
• The latest minutes of the Federal Market Committee meeting (FOMC) confirmed the decision to maintain the interest rate in January. Decision -makers emphasized the need for more time to assess economic activity, labor market trends and inflation before considering any rate corrections. The committee also agreed that before the implementation of rate reduction, clear signs of decreasing inflation are necessary.
• President Trump confirmed that the 25% tariff for pharmaceutical and semiconductors will take part in April. In addition, he confirmed that car tariffs would remain at 25%, which additionally escalato global trade voltages.
• The Australian production of the PMI Bank increased to 50.6 in February, compared to 50.2 in January. PMI services improved to 51.4 of 51.2, while the PMI composite increased to 51.2 of 51.1.
• The Australian Statistics Office (ABS) announced on Thursday that the unemployment rate in Australia increased to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December, in accordance with market expectations. In addition, the change of employment amounted to 44 thousand. In January, down from a changed 60,000 in December (previously 56.3 thousand), but still exceed the consensus forecast of 20,000.
• Deputy Governor of Bank Reserve Australia (RBA), Andrew Hauser, stated during a conversation with Bloomberg News last week that Central Bank’s policy “is still restrictive”. Hauser noticed that the latest data from work showed a slight reason for concern.

The Australian dollar can test the support of 0.6350 near nine EMA days

Aud/USD trades on Monday near 0.6370, passing as part of a growing channel, which reflects the moods of the stubborn on the market. The 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) remains above 50, confirming positive perspectives.

On the other hand, the Aud/USD pair may question the key psychological resistance to 0.6400, with another obstacle on the upper border of the channel growing about 0.6430.

The Aud/USD pair could find immediate support on a nine-day interpretation average (EMA) of 0.6347, and then 14-day EMA to 0.6330. The stronger support zone is in line with the lower canal border near 0.6320.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart