• Mexican peso walks water because the inflation numbers indicate further alleviation by Banxico.
• Despite the lack of wages in the USA, the lower unemployment rate increases USD in relation to peso.
• Interest rate forecasts suggest further alleviating in Mexico, with the Fed maintaining cautious prospects for 2025.

The Mexican peso (MXN) reversed its course and absorbed on Friday after inflation in Mexico, justified 50 interest rates on Thursday by Banco de Mexico (Banxico). In the United States (USA), labor data was mixed because the wages did not miss the sign, but the unemployment rate dropped lower. USD/MXN trades at 20.60, which is an boost of 0.86%.

Inflation in Mexico fell in January, exceeding the estimates revealed by the Instituto Nacional de Estadisticla Geography E Informatica (Inegi). The header and basic inflation remained in the Banxico 3% plus or minus 1% scope and improved compared to the latest report, opening the door to further alleviateing by the Mexican central bank.

On Thursday, Banxico reduced the cost of a loan from 10% to 9.50% and suggested that it could reduce the rate by the same size in further meetings. Banxico officials added that inflation coincides to 3% in the third quarter of 2026.

The USD/MXN pair extended their profits after the last pay report in the USA. Although these numbers were not expected, the improvement of the unemployment rate stimulated the leg in exotic pairs.

In addition, the difference in interest rates between Mexico and the US will narrow. According to the latest survey of the private economist Banxico, the main reference ratio will fall to 8.50%. And vice versa, the Federal Reserve (FED) stopped its soothing cycle and predicted two rates of rates in 2025, as revealed in December summarizing the economic forecasts (SEP).

Daily Digest Market Movers: Progress on Mexican inflation, weighs Mexican peso

• The Mexico consumer price indicator (CPI) in January increased by 3.53% y / y, compared to 4.21% in the previous month and below estimates of 3.61%. Core CPI increased by 3.66%y / y, compared to 3.65%, but below the forecasts 3.70%.
• The evolution of the disinflation process in Mexico and economic spasm in the last quarter by -0.6% QOQ were the main factors to reduce the cost of a Banx loan by 50 BPS.
• Banx’s decision was not unanimous because the deputy governor Jonathan Heath voted for a cut by 25 BPS. Currently, the plaque is divided between four pigeons and Heath is the only “hawk”.
• In January, American non -farmed wages fell from 256 thousand. Up to 143 thousand, without losing a sign of 170 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4%.
• Commercial disputes between the USA and Mexico remain in the boiler. Although the countries have found a common plane, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day break and that tensions may appear at the end of February.
• Federal Feder Futures money market funds is a valuation at 39 base points (BPS) to facilitate the federal reserve in 2025.

Technical perspectives USD/MXN: Mexican peso prepared for further losses

USD/MXN consolidated in the area of ​​20.30 – 20.70 for the last four days, after Monday’s unstable session due to Trump tariffs in Mexico. The pair remains biased, with sturdy support with a 50-day straight movable medium (SMA) at 20.57.

If USD/MXN increases after 20.70, the next resistance would be 17 January a day at 20.90 before testing 21.00 and year (YTD) to 21.29.

And vice versa, if USD/MXN drops below 50-day SMA, the next support would be a 100-day SMA at 20.22. After cleaning, you can see a further defect, and the pair can challenge 20.00.