EUR/USD price analysis: 20-day SMA failures hamper attempts to rally

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  • EUR/USD fell 0.23% on Thursday, trading near 1.0270 after losing momentum after a brief rally.
  • The MACD histogram shows rising green bars, indicating modest buying interest despite robust headwinds.
  • The RSI is at negative 43, suggesting only a gentle rebound in the prevailing bear environment.

The EUR/USD pair recovered on Thursday, but still retreated 0.23% and hovered around 1.0270. Although buyers tried to push prices higher in early trading, their efforts were thwarted by the failure to sustain a break above the 20-day plain moving average (SMA). This inability to address key technical barriers highlights the brittle recovery prospects for both companies.

From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to display rising green bars, indicating that buying pressure has not completely abated. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 43 despite the recent rally, remains in negative territory, underscoring the cautious tone around the euro. Unless the pair overcomes persistent resistance around the 20-day SMA, bullish enthusiasm is likely to remain subdued.

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Looking towards possible inflection points, initial support appears near 1.0250 and a drop below this threshold opens the door to the 1.0220 area. On the other hand, for buyers to gain significant momentum, a decisive move above the 1.0300 level would be required, potentially setting the stage for a challenge at the 1.0350 barrier if sentiment continues to improve.

EUR/USD daily chart

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