• Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon have signed a ceasefire agreement.
• Several major OPEC+ countries have already started discussions on plans to restart production ahead of Sunday’s meeting.
• The US dollar index falls after the publication of significant macroeconomic data from the USA.

The price of crude oil is rising on Wednesday, flirting with a nearly 1% gain a day before this week’s inventory changes data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The move comes after several delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) confirmed that talks were ongoing on another delay to production normalization plans. Bloomberg reports that the postponement could take months, and there is even talk of a postponement to the second quarter of 2025.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar’s performance against a basket of currencies, is struggling again ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday. The release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes on Wednesday was a signal for investors to start taking profits as the dollar rose, taking into account only a pause in interest rate cuts or an actual cut in interest rates before the upcoming December Fed meeting.

With the shortened trading week, all major economic data releases, such as the revised U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the third quarter, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, and the sturdy goods orders reading for October, are due this Wednesday . Estimate omissions in sturdy goods attracted the most attention, while US GDP produced no major surprises.

At the time of writing, crude oil (WTI) was trading at $69.00 and Brent crude oil was trading at $72.64.

Oil news and market drivers: OPEC+ is turning into a maze

• A ceasefire agreement has been signed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and should result in tensions in the Middle East easing from now on and the risk premium continuing to be priced based on oil.
• Key OPEC+ countries began discussions on Tuesday about delaying the January resumption of oil production, potentially by several months, delegates said, Bloomberg reported.
• Goldman Sachs joins RBC in its latest note to investors in pointing to signs of increasing compliance with OPEC+ production quotas, making it likely that the alliance will decide to extend production cuts, scheduled to end in January, when it meets in this weekend, Reuters reports.
• On Tuesday, the weekly crude oil inventory release from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decline of 5.935 million barrels compared to the previous figure of 4.753 million barrels.
• At 15:30 GMT, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) will publish its weekly findings on changes in crude oil stocks. For the week ending November 22, draws are expected to be 1.3 million barrels, down from the previous level of 0.545 million.

Oil Technical Analysis: The crude oil landscape remains flooded with supply

After a failed attempt on Tuesday, the price of crude oil will attempt to rebound again this week. The question remains when OPEC+ will be able to control oil price movements again, with markets already pricing in another delay from the March announcement and beyond in 2025. Without additional supply-containment measures, a return to higher oil prices is impossible and not an option.

On the other hand, the key resistances are the key level at $71.46 and the 100-day plain moving average (SMA) at $72.40. The 200-day SMA at $76.32 is still some way off, although it could be tested if tensions continue to escalate. With an uptrend towards the 200-day SMA, the key level at $75.27 could continue to leisurely any gains.

On the other hand, investors need to look towards $67.12 – the level where the price held in May and June 2023 – to find initial support. If it is broken, the 2024 low will be $64.75, followed by the 2023 low at $64.38.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart