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UK stock markets have had a bumpy run FTSE100 down 4.4% over the past six months. It’s still up 8.81% on the year, but where is the recent turnaround coming from?
As always, many factors come into play. China is massive. The world’s largest economy continues to struggle despite a series of stimulus packages from Beijing. I have seen a direct impact on the number of FTSE shares in my self-invested personal pension (SIPP).
During the boom years, China consumed 60% of the world’s metals and minerals. This source of demand has declined, hitting the mining giant’s revenues Glencore. Chinese customers also consume less for the luxury fashion house Burberry. Shares of these two companies have fallen by 18.37% and 48.05%, respectively, in the last 12 months.
The FTSE 100 index is falling, but it will come back
The run-up to the first Labor budget in 14 years also hit the FTSE as businesses and consumers worried about tax rises. On Friday we saw the impact of this decision on the British economy. After growing by 0.7% in Q1 and 0.5% in Q2, GDP growth dropped to just 0.1% in Q3. The economy actually contracted by 0.1% in September.
The pain could drag on as businesses face £25 billion of National Insurance contributions increases from April. Another SIPP holding, JD sports fashionas a result, he slipped. It employs more than 50,000 people in the UK and higher labor costs will reduce margins. The company’s shares are currently down 16.59% in 12 months.
The US presidential election result has boosted US markets but has met with a mixed reception in the UK, Europe and beyond as investors worry about Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs.
Pharmaceutical giant GSKanother SIPP holding, was affected by Trump’s decision to appoint anti-vaccination activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr as head of the US Department of Health and Human Services. Its shares are down 12.92% in a month and 6.59% in a year.
However, I have no intention of selling any of these shares. I believe these are good companies that have been hit by forces beyond their control. I think they will come back in time.
The same goes for the consumer goods giant Unilever (LSE:ULVR). The company’s stock has been on the upswing, but is down 6.68% over the past month. Fortunately, they are still up 16.69% over the 12 months.
Unilever’s price recovery has stalled
On October 24, Unilever reported third-quarter core sales growth of 4.5%, led by energy brands Pigeon, Comfort AND Magnum. This result exceeded analysts’ expectations of a growth of 4.2%.
It still expects full-year sales growth to be between 3% and 5% as CEO Hein Schumacher gets the company back on track for “doing fewer things, better and with greater effect”. However, he still has a long way to go.
The obvious worry is that Unilever will be hit by US tariffs. North America generated 19% of total turnover last year and is one of the three priority markets, along with India and China.
Some of this impact is priced into Unilever’s share price after its recent decline. I will take advantage of this and top up my stake as soon as possible. Then I’ll start hunting for more FTSE 100 opportunities as there are plenty of them today.