Election day has finally arrived in the US, and the outcome remains uncertain. The results of the Trump-Harris presidential runoff could have significant short- and long-term implications, including for UK and global stocks.

Here are two FTSE100 stocks that could raise in value if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

BAE systems

Defense companies like it BAE systems (LSE:BA.) have appreciated since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Demand for weapons increased as Western countries added to their arsenals after the end of the Cold War. It is widely believed that this trend will continue as geopolitical tensions raise.

Defense sales could get an extra shot in the arm if Trump also succeeds today. One of his stated priorities is to improve the military situation, including the construction of the “Iron Dome” anti-missile defense system and the implementation of large-scale modernization.

This could represent a windfall for BAE Systems, given its status as a top U.S. supplier. The company generated 42% of its revenue there last year, making it its largest market.

But that’s not all. A Trump presidency could also have a significant impact on other countries’ defense spending.

Criticizing NATO countries for failing to meet spending commitments was a hallmark of his last term as president. There are also rumors that if he wins today, he will demand that the defense bloc raise military spending to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), up from the current 2%.

Defense companies like BAE continue to face risks such as supply chain issues and cost inflation. But overall, I think the FTSE looks great.

Shell

If his recent stint in the White House is any indication, the oil industry could also be a substantial beneficiary of Trump’s election victory. Investing in Shell (LSE:SHEL) might be a good play on this topic.

In the years 2016-2020, the former president introduced a wide range of measures to support fossil fuel producers. He increased drilling leases on federal lands, approved pipeline projects like Keystone XL, and rolled back environmental regulations to assist companies cut costs.

In the following years, Trump’s support for the oil sector also remained unchanged. During the campaign, he pledged to raise production as part of his “America First” policy.

Shell could be one of the biggest winners if Trump wins today. It is one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, operating in 70 countries. It also derives a significant portion of its profits in the U.S. from its extensive refining operations and mining assets.

That said, regardless of who delivers the election, investing in oil companies will still be fraught with risk. The crude oil market is facing a gigantic oversupply as the Chinese economy cools and modern production capacity is launched. This could keep oil prices on their recent downward path, impacting producers’ earnings.

Moreover, countries are investing heavily in renewable energy to wean themselves from oil and gas, which is a long-term problem. Although Shell’s investments in renewable energy could assist mitigate this threat.