Speculations about The Bitcoin boom is over were common in the cryptocurrency market, especially since the price did not reach its March high above $73,000. Providing a more compelling argument for this narrative, a cryptocurrency analyst published a file Bitcoin bear case a scenario where the pioneering cryptocurrency could fall to $28,000.

Bitcoin Bear casing revealed

WX (formerly Twitter) postcryptocurrency analyst and position trader Bob Loukas revealed the “Bitcoin bear case”, revealing a more unconventional and bearish scenario for Bitcoin than most analysts suggest. Basing his bearish scenarios on cycle theory, Loukas proposes that Bitcoin could be part of a broader 16-year cycle, with the current market marking the final four-year phase of that cycle.

The analyst suggested that this four-year stage could end in two ways – with a distribution stage, where price peak and then a decline or growth phase where Bitcoin experiences one last rally before a recession begins. Loukas revealed this during cyclical trends can assist predict or provide insight into future price movements of a cryptocurrency, highlights that the “law of powerlessness” ensures that the price of the asset will constantly enhance.

The analyst aims to desensitize investors into believing that Bitcoin will always go up without any downside. He claims that a bear cycle is inevitable at some point, although the timing remains uncertain.

Loukas pointed out specific price movements on his Bitcoin chart that can serve as: bearish signalsuggesting potential deterioration. The analyst anticipates this Bitcoin Could Fall to New Lows approximately $28,500 by 2026. It also predicted that after a period of volatility including prices are falling and growth, the cryptocurrency could rise again to $59,500 by 2027.

For greater clarity, Loukas offered a narrative suggesting that if Bitcoin closed below the 10-month moving average (MA) at “bull market”, this would be a cause for concern. Similarly, a monthly close below $58,800 could indicate the beginning of a potential downward spiral.

A cryptocurrency analyst put the probability of this bearish scenario at 10% to 15%, emphasizing that it is a possibility, not a certainty. He explained that although he believed in current market cycle leans towards a more sanguine scenario based on historical evidence, always considering alternative scenarios. This approach is likely due to the inherent unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market notorious volatility.

The analyst sees retail activity driving BTC’s downtrend

Revealing his Bitcoin bear scenario, Loukas revealed that broader interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin has waned significantly. He revealed that there is a lack of modern retail investors and that’s it waning enthusiasm could pose a significant challenge to Bitcoin in terms of generating modern capital for development.

According to Loukas, lack of interest from retail investors may result from mood changes. Interest in cryptocurrencies comes down to plain speculation and fewer and fewer people believe in their transformative potential.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com