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I was pleased with last year’s purchase Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY), but then I looked at Barclays (LSE: BARC) and I couldn’t facilitate but feel sorry. My god, well done.
My Lloyds shares have just fallen 12.92% for the week as the automotive finance misselling scandal looks set to spiral out of control. They’re still up 34.03% for the year, but that’s nothing for Barclays.
Barclays shares are up 85.29% over the last year and, barring worries about motor finance, are up 7.82% in a complex month for the FTSE 100. Has it all gone too far?
Maybe I shouldn’t have bought Lloyds shares!
I always knew Barclays had more growth potential than Lloyds as it clung to its investment banking arm after the financial crisis. It also boasts a growing American credit card business.
This gives it a energetic feel that Lloyds lacks because it sticks to the principles of British personal and tiny business banking.
Everything would have been fine if the management hadn’t gotten involved in fraudulent sales. Lloyds also suffered the most from PPI. I don’t expect vehicle finance to cost another £23 billion, but it really should know better by now.
Barclays has also had regulatory problems, usually in the US. On October 1, it agreed to pay $4 million for violating U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) swap reporting rules.
That’s a fraction of the $361 million settlement to resolve U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over-issuance charges in 2022. Given the toughness of U.S. regulators, there will be more, but Barclays is weathering them better than Lloyds.
Barclays makes a lot of money. On October 24, it reported an 18% escalate in pre-tax profits for the third quarter, to £2.2 billion. This beat forecasts of £2 billion, helped by higher revenues and lower impairment charges.
A bank listed on the FTSE 100 stock exchange begins to operate on its own
Investment banking fees are finally starting to rise, and trading activity in the equity and debt markets is also increasing.
Lloyds has a higher trailing yield of 5.16%, although this has been boosted by the recent share price decline. This easily beats Barclays with 3.38%. However, markets believe that Barclays has £10 billion of cash on hand to be paid out by 2026, including share buybacks.
Both Lloyds and Barclays could take a hit when interest rates start to fall – assuming they do. This will reduce the net interest margin, which is the difference between what banks pay savers and what borrowers collect. On the other hand, lower interest rates may revive mortgage lending.
Due to its exposure to the US, Barclays could find itself in a complex situation if the US Federal Reserve fails to engineer a gentle landing or the presidential election brings unknown horrors. However, despite the great streak, the stock still looks like a great value, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.74. This is only slightly more high-priced than Lloyds – 7.06% times.
Barclays didn’t jump the shark. There is nothing excessive about his phenomenal results and I will buy his shares in November. Better behind schedule than never. When it comes to Lloyds, I won’t give up. I still think it’s a solid long-term buy and hold.