After four months of failing trading volumes by retail investors, online Bitcoin (BTC) retail activity is showing signs of resurgence.

Will Bitcoin Benefit from Growing Retail?

According to a recent one analysis thanks to the CryptoQuant analytics platform, BTC transactions of less than $10,000 are increasing, reflecting the shift in market sentiment from risk-averse to risk-prone.

Tracking transactions under $10,000 helps you gauge retail activity. Unlike institutional trading, which is driven by fundamentals and long-term prospects, market sentiment and news often influence retail activity.

The analysis shows that retail demand for Bitcoin has struggled to recover from its all-time high (ATH) in March 2024. However, retail demand has increased by 13% in the last 30 days, leaving room for further growth.

Over the same period, BTC gained approximately 7%, rising from $63,142 on September 22 to $67,346 on October 22. Both rising online retail activity and price suggest a potential augment in BTC value in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Fast recovery BTC and other cryptocurrencies following Iran’s offensive against Israel earlier this month also signal a return to risky behavior in the digital asset market.

It is worth noting that while online retail activity declined over the past four months, institutional investors continued to maintain “high transaction volume and coin uptake.” The analysis reads in part:

This recent rally in Bitcoin is causing compact investors to return to trading, signaling the beginning of a decline in risk aversion.

Is a Q4 2024 rally on the horizon?

The return of Bitcoin retail activity online is an encouraging sign that suggests renewed interest from retail investors in the leading digital asset. However, with the upcoming US presidential elections, the BTC price may be more volatile.

According to several crypto analysts and trading firms, the likelihood of the cryptocurrency market rising in the fourth quarter of 2024 depends on the results of the US presidential election.

Most recently, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan he noticed that “anything other than a Democrat coup” will benefit BTC to $80,000 in Q4 2024.

Bitcoin’s dominance, an indicator measuring BTC’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market, recently hit 58.9%, a up-to-date peak in the cycle. While this is promising for BTC’s future price, a further augment in dominance could hurt altcoin performance. As a result, Q4 2024 may bring up-to-date ATH for BTC but muted gains for altcoins.

It is also worth considering that renewed retail demand for digital assets may be geographically specific rather than uniform across the globe.

For example, in South Korea it is BTC commercial at prices slightly lower than global prices due to the negative “kimchi premium”, indicating low sentiment among domestic investors towards digital assets. At press time, BTC is trading at $67,346, down 1.4% in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and Tradingview.com