Weekly Stock Preview: September jobs report will be in focus

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Investing.com – The index (DJIA) hit a up-to-date record high on Friday as investors digested up-to-date data suggesting further progress in curbing inflation. Wall Street also posted a third straight week of gains.

The 30-stock Dow rose 137.89 points, or 0.33%, to close at 42,313.00, setting both a session and all-time high. Meanwhile, the index fell marginally 0.13% to 5,738.17 and then 0.39% to end at 18,119.59, with a 2% decline in Nvidia (NASDAQ:), dragging the tech-focused index lower.

All three major indexes extended their weekly losing streak, with the S&P 500 and Dow gaining about 0.6% for the week, while the Nasdaq gained almost 1%.

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Investors were encouraged by inflation data that could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut interest rates further.

The Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1%, in line with economists’ expectations. Year-over-year, PCE rose 2.2%, slightly below the forecast 2.3%.

The coming week will be full of employment data, with the centerpiece being the September jobs report released on Friday.

After pointed declines in job openings over the past two months, JPMorgan economists expect the August JOLTS report to show relatively stable job openings.

In their September jobs report, they project an boost of 125,000 positions, slightly below August’s gain but still slightly above the three-month average.

“The unemployment rate rounded down to 4.2% in August and we think it could round down to 4.3% in next week’s report,” economists said in a recent note.

Other essential data releases due this week include the ISM Manufacturing report on Tuesday, ADP employment data on Wednesday and Thursday’s jobless claims.

Additionally, on Monday, Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to make his first public comments after recently significantly cutting interest rates.

Nike’s earnings report is also in the spotlight

In addition to the many essential economic data releases, investors will also be paying attention to subsequent earnings reports in the coming days, especially those released Nike (NYSE:).

Analysts at Barclays expect the footwear and apparel giant to face “significant pressure” in the first fiscal quarter of 2025 due to “franchise lifecycle management” and the economic slowdown in China, but note that these expectations appear “sufficiently circumscribed to risk.”

In the near term, analysts believe Nike’s fiscal 2025 guidance “is achievable with a return to wholesale, potential NA DTC growth, and the Nike brand footwear restock cycle as we enter the 2025 calendar.”

Other companies set to report earnings this week include Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (NYSE:), Carnival Corp. (NYSE:) and Levi Strauss (NYSE:), among others.

What analysts are saying about US stocks

Bank of America: “There have been a lot of positive influences on stocks in recent weeks: the Fed, China and improving economic surprises. The NFP and ISM Manufacturing PMI (both released this week) are the two weakest headline figures over the last 2 months. Therefore, we believe that investors may miss a tiny weakening and only significant misses will reignite fears of a recession. On the other hand, mighty footprints can further boost your confidence when landing softly.

Goldman Sachs: “The aggregate return on equity (ROE) premium over the median stock has increased to 390 bps, the widest difference since 1980. Moreover, the spread between stocks with the highest and lowest ROE on the market has widened significantly compared to a decade ago. most likely as a result of the use of leverage. The widening profitability gap may partly help explain why investors are currently paying a premium for “quality” factors. However, we expect these premiums to decline as the macro backdrop remains solid.”

Wedbush: “We believe the stage is set for tech stocks to surge more than 10% higher by year-end and another 20% in 2025 as the tech bull market enters its next disruption-led phase artificial intelligence. “In our view, as the Fed and Powell have embarked on an aggressive rate cut cycle, a macro soft landing remains the right path, and AI tech spending remains a generational spending cycle that is only just starting to hit the shores of the tech sector.”

Morgan Stanley: “Over the next 3-6 months, equity performance, both at index and sector/factor levels, will be driven more by labor market data than anything else. The next round of employment data will be released later this week. I believe we would need a positive surprise to ensure a sustained cyclical rotation in the US.

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