The coming week will be dominated by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision on interest rates, data on inflation and the labor market in the United Kingdom (UK), and preliminary data on the global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Employment data in Australia, inflation in New Zealand and Canadian CPI will also attract attention.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly higher near 100.80 following mixed economic releases from the United States (US). The calendar for the United States will be relatively delicate, making the dollar sensitive to Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, global risk sentiment and energy market developments.
The number of up-to-date jobless claims in the US is expected to escalate slightly to 212,000. from 208 thousand on Thursday. On Friday, the focus will be on S&P Global’s preliminary PMI indexes and up-to-date home sales. The previous Composite PMI was 51.9, for Industry at 53.9 and for Services at 51.2. Better activity data could support the US dollar, while weaker data could extend the recent loss of momentum.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.03% | -0.20% | 0.20% | -0.00% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.12% | -0.04% | -0.28% | 0.16% | -0.06% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.40% | 0.02% | -0.17% | -0.35% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.17% | -0.23% | 0.18% | -0.04% | -0.19% | |
| BOOR | 0.20% | 0.28% | 0.40% | 0.23% | 0.42% | 0.21% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.42% | -0.22% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.04% | -0.21% | 0.22% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | 0.22% | 0.35% | 0.19% | -0.06% | 0.38% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rates are falling near 1.1440 due to the tight calendar of the euro zone. Producer inflation in Germany will be published on Monday, followed by the ZEW German survey and the European Central Bank (ECB) Bank Credit Survey on Tuesday. Economic sentiment in Germany is expected to improve to 18.0 from 10.5, while the current situation index will escalate to -77.8 from -81.0.
On Thursday, the ECB is expected to leave the main refinancing operations rate unchanged at 2.40% and the deposit rate at 2.25%. Investors will carefully read the policy statement and press conference for guidance on inflation and possible additional interest rate increases. Friday’s flash PMIs for France, Germany and the euro zone will provide further evidence about the region’s economic dynamics.
GBP/USD rates are falling near 1.3450, and the pound sterling is facing several vital domestic publications. Tuesday’s labor market report is expected to show that earnings without bonuses will escalate by 3.4%, while earnings after bonuses will escalate by 4.5%. It is forecast that employment will escalate by 100,000 and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.9%.
There will be inflation in the UK on Wednesday. Core CPI is expected to fall to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, while headline inflation was previously at 2.8%. Retail sales and flash PMIs will be released on Friday. Hotter inflation or wages reports could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain tight policy, while weaker employment and consumption data could put pressure on sterling.
USD/JPY remains near 162.50, making markets alert to the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities. Japan’s trade report is expected to show that exports increased by 18.6% y/y and imports increased by 21.0%, with the overall trade deficit narrowing to about 120 billion yen.
Inflation in Japan will also be closely watched later in the week. It is forecast that CPI excluding fresh food will escalate by 1.6% y/y from 1.4%. Stronger inflation may support expectations for additional monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and provide some relief to the Japanese yen.
AUD/USD rates are falling near 0.6980 ahead of Wednesday’s data from the Australian labor market. Employment is expected to escalate by 15,000 in June, a acute slowdown from the previous gain of 40,300, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%.
Flash Australian PMIs will be released on Thursday. The previous Composite PMI was 50.4, for Industry at 51.5 and for Services at 50.5. China’s interest rate decision on Sunday will also have implications for the China-sensitive Australian dollar, with the People’s Bank of China expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.0%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading near $82 a barrel, up almost 3% on continued supply concerns due to geopolitical risks. Oil will remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East and flash global PMIs, which may impact expectations for future energy demand.
The price of gold is rising near $4,015, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and demand for defensive assets. However, stronger global activity or inflation data could lift government bond yields and limit the recovery in the precious metals market.
Anticipating the economic outlook: voices on the horizon
Tuesday, July 21:
Friday, July 24:
Central bank meetings and upcoming data releases
The People’s Bank of China will announce its interest rate decision on Sunday, July 19, with the benchmark rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%.
The ECB will announce its decision on monetary policy on Thursday, July 23. The main refinancing operation rate is expected to remain at 2.40%, while the deposit rate will remain at 2.25%. The political statement will be followed by a press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
