July for Bitcoin (BTC) is the best month since 2022, but analysis warns that the result could be heavily bearish.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin approaches double-digit gains in July, but market reactions point to 2022 comparisons.
• Bear market patterns point to a resumption of declines next month before bottoming out in Q4.
• The target for the current rebound remains $70,000.

The analyst sees the BTC price “rising” for the rest of July before a reversal occurs

Data from CoinGlass shows that at a rate of 9.5% BTC/USD sets a four-year record of July increases.

In the last year of Bitcoin’s bear market, 2022, the price was almost 17% higher at the end of July, after significant losses of 38% the month before. However, what happened in August showed that the calls for a bullish continuation at the time were premature. BTC/USD fell by approximately 14%, followed by a further decline of 3% in September.

This time around, market participants are therefore predictably cautious about short-term pricing power.

“The BTC dollar has been almost in line with July’s average performance so far. But of course it’s still early,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on CoinGlass’ numbers in Post X on Saturday.

Daan Crypto Trades noted that even considering the bull market, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with average gains of just 6%.

“It has a lot to do with sluggish markets, low liquidity and volumes over the summer,” he added.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also concerned about seasonality, noting that BTC prices in 2026 closely match previous bear markets.

“If history repeats itself, the situation for Bitcoin and its summer relief effort will likely improve in the second half of July,” he added. he said X followers this week.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

How – Cointelegraph reportedRekt Capital predicts August will erase this month’s gains in preparation for a classic bear market bottom later in the year.

Radar predicts $70,000 for July BTC price rebound

Meanwhile, other market participants are preparing targets for the rest of July, where $70,000 becomes popular.

Related: Bitcoin returns to 64.3 thousand dollars as recent 3-week highs in BTC prices approach

“We have some interesting days ahead of us,” predicts Peter Anthony, creator of the House of Crypto channel on YouTube, analyzing the daily chart.

Another trader looked at the area between $67,000 and $73,000 for a brief entry, also predicting “a strong July followed by a bearish August through the fourth quarter.”

“The fourth quarter is a period of real BTC volatility (in both directions),” concluded Daan Crypto Trades.

“Will it be the same this year?”

Before, Tagged by Cointelegraph many onchain indicators are now flashing as lower bear market signals for the first time in four years.

Meanwhile, overall demand only showed partial signs of recovery.