According to Real Vision’s chief cryptocurrency analyst, Jamie Coutts, Bitcoin may enter the final phase of the bear market and the dynamics of declines will begin to leisurely down.
“I think we’re past most of the bear market. It’s definitely not over yet. But you know, I think we’re getting at least into the second half,” Coutts said during interview regarding Cointelegraph trade secrets.
Coutts described Bitcoin’s current price action as a “typical bear market,” with BTC trading around $63,000, which is about 50% below the all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025.
He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped by about 50% compared to the previous market cycle, suggesting that the current downturn may be less severe than previous bear markets.
Bitcoin is up 4.45% in the last 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)
Coutts cautioned, however, that markets rarely follow historical patterns so closely. “They’re just doing their thing. Right now all the trend indicators are obviously bearish,” Coutts said.
Coutts said there is an upside to the situation, with him starting to see early technical signs of easing selling pressure.
“I’m starting to see a bullish divergence over longer time frames in terms of momentum. This just tells me that the acceleration, or rather the negative momentum, is decreasing, but that doesn’t mean that we’re technically going to get out of the bear market at all,” Coutts said.
While many market participants blamed Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter downturn on tightening global liquidity conditions, Coutts said weakening onchain fundamentals also played a significant role.
“So on-chain demand, which definitely influences price and is somewhat correlated with factors such as global liquidity and business cycle, has also started to deteriorate.”
Related: Bitcoin ETFs end ‘most overwhelming’ $2.7 billion sell-off amid $85 million in up-to-date net outflows
Jamie Coutts is skeptical that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030
Coutts was cautious when asked whether he agreed with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s long-term predictions that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
“The models I worked with were about a million by 2032, 2033. It’s just a function of how many money prints will be needed by then,” he said.
“What I like more is the forecast that Bitcoin should reach a price of $200,000 to $250,000 in the next two to three years,” he said. He added that beyond that time frame, “it’s very difficult to say.”
“I think it’s going to be interesting what AI brings to the equation, as you know, we’re seeing more wallets designed for agents and what will they essentially store their value in? Will they make the same decisions as humans?” he said.
In terms of long-term risks to Bitcoin’s valuation, Coutts said the community will need to take stronger action by 2027 to address the potential threat posed by quantum computing.
“Unless there is some really decisive movement on this, this will become an increasingly talked about issue on the network because while everything is at risk from quantum technology, Bitcoin is a decentralized network. It will take five years for it to actually implement a major protocol update.”
Coutts said Bitcoin developers who dismiss concerns about quantum computing potentially compromising the network are on the “wrong side of this issue.”
Characteristics: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma – larger blocks or STARK proofs?
