The pound sterling (GBP) is holding steady in the North American session on Friday after risk appetite deteriorated after US President Donald Trump posted on social media that the ceasefire with Iran had ended, even as negotiations continue. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading unchanged at 1.3406, having hit a near-monthly high of 1.3451 earlier in the day.
GBP/USD holds steady as geopolitics, Fed protocols and UK politics collide
GBP/USD will end this week up over 0.58% following the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. The end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could strengthen the dollar, even as the two countries are scheduled to continue negotiations in Switzerland next week.
Meanwhile, Fed meeting minutes showed that, based on incoming data, officials favored further tightening of monetary policy but continued to support interest rates. On the data side, jobless claims were better than expected, although they did little to move the needle as market participants digested geopolitical news.
Otherwise, the U.S. economy has been modest, but will pick up next week. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of consumer and producer inflation data, as well as speeches by Federal Reserve officials, the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment report and the appearance of novel Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in the US Congress.
There was also no timetable in the UK, but traders are supporting sterling following comments from former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who is expected to become the novel prime minister.
In political news, Burnham has already taken the first step towards a novel prime minister. He secured the support of a majority of Labor MPs for the successor of current Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Next week’s UK economic calendar will feature speeches from the Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, and Governor Andrew Bailey. Additionally, investors will pay attention to the release of BRC retail sales data, followed by the release of gross domestic product (GDP) in May.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecasts for the British economy, predicting 1% growth in 2026, confirming it will be the third fastest-growing economy in the G7, behind Canada and the US.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, the GBP/USD rate is 1.3421. The pair is holding above the latest reading of the 50/100/200-day cluster straightforward moving average (SMA) at 1.3394, suggesting a moderately constructive tone in the tiny term, although it is still holding below the broken resistance and trendline support levels around 1.3500. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.2 is leaning toward bullish momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers will maintain the upper hand as long as price holds at the nearby lower SMA level.
On the other hand, immediate support is seen in the SMA cluster around 1.3394, just below the current point, with the recent close at 1.3421 representing a nearby pivot level for short-term buying interest on the dip. On the upside, initial resistance appears at the earlier break of the support trendline near 1.3501, followed by a break of the descending resistance trendline at 1.3504, where a sustained clear will pave the way for a more decisive bullish extension in the coming days.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the aid of an AI tool. Find out more.)
Sterling price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies traded this week. The British pound was strongest against the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.00% | -0.51% | 0.05% | -0.49% | -0.39% | -1.11% | 0.40% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | -0.54% | 0.02% | -0.52% | -0.36% | -1.15% | 0.34% | |
| GBP | 0.51% | 0.54% | 0.45% | 0.02% | 0.19% | -0.60% | 0.88% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.45% | -0.55% | -0.31% | -1.13% | 0.33% | |
| BOOR | 0.49% | 0.52% | -0.02% | 0.55% | 0.22% | -0.57% | 0.86% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | 0.36% | -0.19% | 0.31% | -0.22% | -0.80% | 0.67% | |
| NZD | 1.11% | 1.15% | 0.60% | 1.13% | 0.57% | 0.80% | 1.50% | |
| CHF | -0.40% | -0.34% | -0.88% | -0.33% | -0.86% | -0.67% | -1.50% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
