West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spent three weeks giving up what the war had spent three months building, and now the tape reads as if February had never ended. The U.S. benchmark is hovering near $68.50, while Brent is hovering near $72.00, several dollars above pre-war baselines and almost 40% below March extremes.
The candles have been shrinking for a week, and with them the ranges, which tells us that the momentum has not weakened as much as it has moved away with the risk premium. The June 17 interim agreement between Washington and Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic, fear trading has been in the building, and what remains is the market being forced to price in uncomplicated supply and demand for the first time this year. He doesn’t seem thrilled about the exercise.
The differential says war trade is closed
The Brent crude premium over WTI has been hovering around $3.50, which is the usual freight and quality territory and not anything resembling a risk premium. Barrels carried by sea had been a fear throughout the war, and now the difference had reverted to the dull arithmetic of comparing pipelines with tankers. No one pays extra for a Brent postcode anymore, and the difference is the purest single metric to be fully extracted from the geopolitical offering.
Everyone is selling out for unification
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to add another 188,000. barrels per day (bpd) to August quotas, the latest step in restoring 940,000. barrels a day of paper supplies since the beginning of the war. Actual production still does not meet formal requirements, and the largest Gulf producers lost around 6 million barrels a day at the worst of the shutdown, although flows have been increasing since the June agreement. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has completely abandoned the quota system, Washington is still working to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) agreed during the war, and U.S. production set a record of nearly 14 million barrels per day in May.
The curve indicates the serene part
Last week, the Brent crude futures curve tilted towards contango for the first time this year, with the six-month spread near minus 56 cents; when the market pays you to store barrels, it means it has too many barrels. In its monthly report, OPEC reduced demand growth in 2026 to below 1 million barrels per day in the coming months, so the supply wave is approaching the forecast of failing demand. Strategists began sketching Brent in the 1960s tardy in the year, and for once the futures market won’t argue with them.
Wednesday brings in revenues
Weekly stocks data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) is released at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday, marking the first immaculate reading on stocks since traffic in Hormuz began to normalize following industry data on Tuesday evening. Minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) arrive on the same day at 18:00 GMT; hawkish The Federal Reserve (Fed) is maintaining its dollar offer, and barrels priced in dollars are not ecstatic about it. OPEC+ ministers meet again on August 2, when Iraq, eager for compensation, is already agitating for larger sums.
Levels to watch
Resistance: The first hurdle for WTI is sustainment at $70.00, followed by the June breakout near $72.00; Brent faces the same test at $74.00. Recovering these levels on a daily close is the minimum before anyone claims the suit is over.
Support: Initial demand is trading near $67.50 for WTI and around $71.00 for Brent crude, representing the low of last week’s deviation. Below USD 65.00 is the only round value recorded before the February bases near USD 62.00 for WTI and USD 66.50 for Brent crude oil, from which the entire journey began.
Bias: Bearish. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has been stuck near its low for two weeks as the price continues to fall, and oversold in a downtrend is descriptive, not a buy signal. As quotas augment, reserves deplete, and the storage fee curve increases, an augment towards $70.00 is a sell; only a daily close above $72.00 changes the discussion, while a break at $67.50 puts the February base on the table.
WTI daily chart
Brent daily chart
Frequently asked questions about WTI crude oil
WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three main types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low weight and low sulfur content. It is considered a high-quality oil that can be easily refined. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Junction, considered the “Crossroads of the World.” It is a reference point for the crude oil market, and the WTI price is often quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are key factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. Therefore, global growth may drive increased demand and, conversely, delicate global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Another key factor shaping prices are the decisions of OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil because oil is mainly sold in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
Weekly crude oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence the price of WTI crude oil. Inventory changes reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate increased demand, which will result in an augment in the price of oil. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, which causes prices to fall. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the following day. Their results are usually similar and are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing countries that jointly decide on production quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Their decisions often influence the prices of WTI crude oil. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, which will push up oil prices. OPEC increasing production has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
