According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin (BTC) holders who acquired their coins more than five years ago have reduced their spending to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024. The slowdown follows three major spending peaks over the past two years, including a high of 3,860 BTC in May 2024.
At the same time, BTC analysts stated that market indicators and yields are converging in the second half of 2026, setting a recent timeline for a potential bottom for Bitcoin.
“OG” Bitcoin holders are retreating
Darkfost cryptocurrency analyst he said the current cycle has seen the highest level of spending by long-term Bitcoin holders on record. The cohort tracked in the dataset consists of investors who purchased Bitcoin more than five years ago.
Using Spent Transaction Outputs (STXO), which tracks Bitcoin’s movement across the network, the analyst identified three main waves of spending after sturdy rallies.
Selling pressure from OG Bitcoin holders. Source: CryptoQuant
The 90-day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Individual sessions were much larger, with some days recording production in excess of 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
The selling pressure has abruptly subsided. The 90-day average fell to 962 BTC, the lowest reading in 19 months. Darkfost said the group’s most costly coins were purchased for around $63,200, close to current prices. This means that many of these holders are choosing not to sell, even though their shares are trading near their highest cost.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. next excellent division into newer and older BTC investors. The analyst said Bitcoin’s adjusted unrealized net profit/loss (aNUPL) has fallen to -0.14 from near zero a month ago, showing that the average holder has returned to unrealized losses when BTC was trading near $62,500. However, Adler Jr he argued,
“STH’s capital shrank by -56%, while LTH’s capital barely shrank. Weak hands capitulate. Strong hands didn’t even flinch.”
Adler Jr. he added that the key indicator has remained below zero for almost half of the last three months, indicating continued pressure on recent entrants to the BTC market rather than broad capitulation among long-term holders.
Analysis of the realized STH vs. LTH limit. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
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BTC halving cycle points to September bottom, analyst says
Cryptocurrency analyst LP highlighted a repeating pattern associated with Bitcoin halving cycles. The previous bear market entered the final phase of capitulation 826 days after the halving, followed by a significant trough and sideways consolidation lasting from 70 to 110 days.
For the current cycle, the 826-day marker is July 6. Using the same time frame means there is a potential low window in early September.
BTC bottom analysis by LP. Source: X
The trader noted that the scenario will become more significant if Bitcoin continues to rise in early July.
Similarly, BTC trader Titan as well identified liquidity drop below current levels. On the quarterly chart, Bitcoin has an untapped low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap between around $49,000 and $58,900.
The trader explained that leaving the quarterly low unchanged throughout September could draw more attention to this liquidity zone, ultimately leading to a market low between the third and fourth quarters.
BTC quarterly analysis. Source: X
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